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Premium Market Sweep · Sunday Night

Week Ahead — July 13–17, 2026

Data as of Friday July 10 close · flow, levels & news · Unusual Whales + wires
Regime: Indices pinned ~0.7% under ATHs Tape: bullish premium skew, but Friday's tide faded intraday The pivot: Tue CPI + Warsh — soft headline (oil −21%) vs sticky core ~3% Playbook: don't add size pre-CPI; let the number set direction

1 · Market state

Fri 7/10 close
SPY
754.95
▲0.43% · ATH 760.40
QQQ
725.55
▲ · reclaimed 720s
Put/Call
0.68
call-tilted
Call prem
$25.5B
vs $14.1B puts
Leaders
XLF · XLK
Fin + Tech bid
Laggard
XLY
puts 8:1

2 · The Tuesday pivot — June CPI

8:30a ET · then Warsh 10:00a

Genuine two-way setup. Oil −21% (Strait of Hormuz reopened) could flip the headline soft — but core is sticky ~2.9–3%, the Cleveland Fed nowcast is ~4%, and 1-yr inflation expectations hit 3.7% (highest since Sep '23). Consensus: headline 3.8% y/y, PPI 6.2% (Wed).

Bull case — soft/in-line print

Risk-on continuation to ATHs

  • Headline cools on energy; core in-line → rate-cut narrative revives
  • SPY presses 756.7 → 760.4 ATH; QQQ back to 730/737
  • Longs work: NVDA, ANET, MU, financials into earnings
Bear case — hot core

Complacency cracks near highs

  • Sticky core + hawkish Warsh "family fight" → yields up, multiple hit
  • SPY loses 748 (max-pain) → 740; QQQ → 717/711
  • Extended names (META, SNDK, MU) unwind fastest — respect stops

3 · Crucial data & catalysts

macro calendar
DayETEventPrior

4 · Notable news & narrative

weekend wires

Earnings season kicks off hot. FactSet sees Q2 S&P EPS +23.3% y/y — a 2nd straight 20%+ quarter. Banks lead: JPM ~$5.5 EPS, GS ~$14.47 (+32% y/y) on blockbuster trading/advisory. NIM is the tell.

AI/semis: melt-up meets rotation. SOX +47% YTD; AI chips added ~$2T of market cap in July — but early-July saw money rotate out of AI. NVDA fell ~18% off its June high before Friday's bounce back over $210.

DeepSeek overhang. Reports DeepSeek is building its own AI chip to cut Nvidia/Samsung dependence — a sentiment headwind under the semis into TSM/ASML prints.

AMD outrunning NVDA. AMD +130% YTD vs NVDA's more modest advance — the relative-strength leader in the group.

Oil −21% to ~$77. Mid-June ceasefire + Strait of Hormuz reopening crushed crude — disinflationary for headline CPI, a drag on Energy (XLE put-heavy Friday).

AI bellwether gauntlet. ASML (Wed), TSM (Thu), NFLX (Thu) — these three set the tone for the entire tech complex mid-week.

Fed "family fight." Chair Warsh's first congressional testimony (Tue 10a) lands 90 min after CPI — the Fed is openly split on hike-vs-hold into year-end. Headline risk all session.

5 · Sector premium flow

call − put premium, $M

6 · Best flow — heaviest call & put premium

Fri 7/10 · net premium $M

Fresh Friday sweeps: MU Jul-17 $1060c ($4.6M — memory supercycle), ORCL Jul-31 $147c ($4.5M), TSM Jul-31 $460c ($4.1M into ER), META Jul-31 $685c ($14.2M), PLTR Aug-7 $131c.

🟢 Heaviest CALL flow — bullish · net call premium, IV Rank labeled

🔴 Heaviest PUT flow — bearish · net put premium

Skews toward big-tech & AI-semi names into earnings — heavy put premium here reads as downside hedging/protection as much as outright bearish bets. MU shows up on both lists (huge two-way tape).

7 · Earnings gauntlet

implied move % · report day

8 · Sunday watchlist — trades & levels

every level off Fri 7/10 structure

Support · Resistance/trigger · Target. Triggers are the level that confirms the setup; stop is the invalidation. Sizing = event names (ER/CPI) are defined-risk only.

Ticker / biasLastTrigger SupportResistanceTargetStopCatalyst / flow

9 · Index levels & max-pain magnets

gamma gravity for the week

Max pain sits below spot all week — a mild downward pull into Fri OpEx unless CPI ignites a trend. SPY pinned ~750 midweek, drifts to 744 by 7/17; QQQ pinned 715–720.

10 · July seasonality

10+ yr · % of Julys green
Not investment advice · snapshot 2026-07-10 · levels derived from 1-month intraday structure · sources: Unusual Whales, CNBC, Kiplinger, IG, Tickeron