Daily Brief · Tomorrow's Watch · Free
Tomorrow — Tuesday, July 14
Written Mon 7/13 after the close · the one thing, the scenarios, the names in play · not financial advice
Bias: neutral / defensive into the number — indices pinned ~0.7% under ATHs
Tape: premium still call-tilted, but Friday faded intraday
Playbook: don't add size before 8:30a — let the print pick the direction
⚠ The one thing that matters
June CPI at 8:30a — then Warsh at 10:00a
Genuine two-way setup. Oil −21% (Strait of Hormuz reopened) could make the headline print soft, but core is sticky near 3% and 1-yr inflation expectations just hit their highest since Sep '23. Consensus: headline 3.8% y/y. Then Fed Chair Warsh testifies 90 minutes later — the Fed is openly split on hike-vs-hold, so headline risk runs all session. This one number sets the tone for the whole week.
8:30a ET CPI · 10:00a ET Warsh · bank earnings pre-market
If–then: two ways it breaks
react, don't predict
If the print is soft / in-line
Risk-on, indices press toward ATHs
- Energy-driven cool headline revives the rate-cut narrative
- Leadership stays with the strong names — semis & financials into earnings
- Buyers step up on the reclaim; extended names get another leg
If core runs hot
Complacency cracks near the highs
- Sticky core + a hawkish Warsh → yields up, multiples get hit
- The most-extended movers unwind the fastest — respect stops
- Indices lose their near-term shelf and drift toward the max-pain magnets below
Before the bell — bank earnings open the season
Tue pre-market
The big banks kick off Q2 season pre-market. Street sees a second straight 20%+ EPS quarter — net interest margin and trading/advisory are the tells. These set the tone for XLF, which was front-running with call flow Friday. (New to reading flow? Sweeps vs blocks, explained →)
JPM
Tue pre
bellwether · ±3.1% implied
GS
Tue pre
±4.0% · biggest $ mover
WFC · C · BAC
Tue pre
round out the group
Watch after
XLF
sector reaction > any single name
Names in play tomorrow
the read + one line in the sand each
This is the why and the level that matters — not a trade plan. Everything is event-gated by the 8:30a print; nothing acts before it. Exact entries, scaling, targets and stops go out in the premium morning game plan and live alerts. Trading calls into the print? First read why a call can drop even when the stock rises →
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SPY
NEUTRAL
The whole tape keys off the CPI reaction. Above the Friday reclaim it wants the ATH; below the max-pain shelf it drifts.
Watch: the post-8:30a reclaim vs. fail at Friday's structure.
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QQQ
NEUTRAL
Tracks the semis. Reclaimed the low-720s Friday — needs the number to hold it there.
Watch: whether it holds the reclaimed zone through the print.
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NVDA
CLEANEST LONG
Low IV-rank, put-selling underneath, reclaimed 210 Friday — the tidiest structure in the group. DeepSeek-chip headlines are the risk.
Watch: holds the reclaim = constructive; loses it = step aside.
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Banks (JPM / GS)
EVENT
Report pre-market — defined-risk only. The XLF reaction matters more than any single beat/miss.
Watch: the sector's move after the prints, not the headline number.
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META
EXTENDED
Huge call flow but IV-rank maxed and it gapped +6% Friday — a chase here is late. Better as a fade-the-gap watch than a breakout.
Watch: the Friday gap as the line between "still strong" and "unwinding."
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SNDK
DO NOT CHASE
Parabolic, IV-rank 97. The flow is real, the chase is not — wait for it to build a base instead of buying strength.
Watch: a pullback and hold, not the next green candle.
🔒
Exact entry, scale-out, targets and stops for every name here go out in the premium morning game plan before the open — and each alert fires live in the room with the fill. The free brief gives you the map; premium gives you the turn-by-turn.
Watch tomorrow play out live
The read above updates in real time in the free Discord — CPI reaction, the bank open, every alert as it fires. 3,600 traders, wins and losses posted. See it before you pay a cent.
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