Daily Brief · Tomorrow's Watch · Free
Tomorrow — Wednesday, July 15
Written Tue 7/14 after the close · the one thing, the scenarios, the names in play · not financial advice
Bias: risk-on but unconfirmed — soft June CPI lifted the tape (S&P +0.4%, Nasdaq +0.9%), semis led
Tape: chip flow out front (NVDA +3.9%, AMAT, MU call-tilted); IBM −25% is stock-specific, not the macro
Playbook: PPI at 7:30a is the confirm-or-deny — don't front-run it; Warsh at 10a keeps headline risk live
⚠ The one thing that matters
June PPI at 7:30a — then Fed Chair Warsh at 10:00a
Yesterday's soft CPI did the heavy lifting; PPI is the wholesale confirm. Consensus is 0.0% m/m against a hot +1.1% prior — a cool print backs the disinflation read and keeps the semis bid, while a hot one says CPI was a one-off and reignites the hike-vs-hold split. Then Fed Chair Warsh testifies to Senate Banking 90 minutes later; with the Fed openly divided, every headline moves rates. Williams speaks 7:45a and the Beige Book lands 1:00p — so the read can shift all session.
7:30a ET PPI · 7:45a Williams · 10:00a Warsh · 1:00p Beige Book
If–then: two ways it breaks
react, don't predict
If PPI is soft / in-line
Disinflation confirmed, semis keep leading
- Cool wholesale prices back yesterday's CPI relief — the rate-cut narrative stays alive
- Chip leadership presses; the strong names (NVDA, semis) get another leg
- Indices lean on yesterday's reclaim and push toward the highs
If PPI runs hot
The one-day relief unwinds
- Sticky wholesale + a hawkish Warsh → yields up, multiples get hit
- The most-extended movers unwind first — respect stops, don't average down
- The mega-cap call crowd (heavy positioning, muted price) is where a flush shows up
Before the bell — Morgan Stanley closes bank season
Wed pre-market
The big banks delivered a profit bonanza Tuesday (JPM, GS, BofA, Citi, WFC), with investment-banking and trading revenue juiced by the SpaceX IPO. Morgan Stanley is the last of the group and the tell on whether that good news is already priced. As always, the XLF reaction matters more than any single print. (New to reading flow? Sweeps vs blocks, explained →)
MS
Wed pre
last big bank · IB/trading tailwind
JPM · GS · BAC
Reported Tue
profit bonanza already out
XLF
already ran
does it hold the earnings pop?
Watch after
Sector > name
the group's move, not the headline
Names in play tomorrow
the read + one line in the sand each
This is the why and the level that matters — not a trade plan. Everything is event-gated by the 7:30a PPI print; nothing acts before it. Exact entries, scaling, targets and stops go out in the premium morning game plan and live alerts. Trading calls into the number? First read why a call can drop even when the stock rises →
🔒
Exact entry, scale-out, targets and stops for every name here go out in the premium morning game plan before the open — and each alert fires live in the room with the fill. The free brief gives you the map; premium gives you the turn-by-turn.
Watch tomorrow play out live
The read above updates in real time in the free Discord — the PPI reaction, Warsh's testimony, the Morgan Stanley open, every alert as it fires. 3,600 traders, wins and losses posted. See it before you pay a cent.
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