Tomorrow — Thursday, July 16

Q2 earnings season shifts from banks to the names that actually drive this tape. TSMC frames the whole AI trade before the open; the 8:30a data triple sets the macro tone; Netflix after the close is the first big consumer-tech print. As always, the sector reaction matters more than any single headline. (New to reading flow? Volume vs open interest, explained →)

This is the why and the level that matters — not a trade plan. The open is event-gated by the TSMC guide and the 8:30a data; nothing acts before them. Exact entries, scaling, targets and stops go out in the premium morning game plan and live alerts. Trading calls into a print? First read why a call can drop even when the stock rises →

• TSMC (TSM)
  EVENT · THE REFEREE
  Reports pre-open — the single most important guide of the day. Positioning into it is cautious: option flow ran slightly put-side (roughly even call/put, net call premium negative) with IV rank up near 80 — the tape is hedged, not leaning long. Its capex and margin commentary settles the megacap-vs-semis split. Defined-risk only into the number.

  Watch: the guide and the SMH reaction, not the headline beat.
• AAPL
  FLOW LEADER · EXTENDED
  +4% to a fresh record on the heaviest single-name call premium on the tape (~$90M net call, 1.8-to-1 call flow). The cleanest bullish structure — but a vertical move into an event-heavy morning is how you buy the top. Let it come to you.

  Watch: holds the record close = constructive; a fade of the extension is the tell it's tired.
• META / GOOGL / MSFT / AMZN
  MEGACAP LEADERSHIP
  Where the money actually went today — all +3–4% with strong bullish call flow (GOOGL 3.6-to-1, MSFT 3.4-to-1, META +$72M net call at IV rank 99). The disinflation trade's favorites carried the tape.

  Watch: the post-8:30a reaction — a narrow four-name tape needs this bid to hold.
• Semis (MU / AMD / SMH)
  DIVERGENCE · CAUTION
  The red flag under the surface. MU printed the tape's most bearish flow (−$107M net call premium, IV rank 85), AMD fell 3.6%, and the SMH ETF closed −1.7% and put-dominated (call/put ~0.3) — all after ASML raised guidance. That's distribution, not accumulation.

  Watch: whether TSM's guide reverses the group — until then, chips are guilty.
• NVDA
  FLAT · MIXED FLOW
  Finished flat while the megacaps ran and the other chips fell — net call premium turned negative and puts were bid (net put premium positive). Sitting on the fence, waiting on TSM like everyone else.

  Watch: the TSM read-through — it breaks with the group, up or down.
• Netflix (NFLX)
  EVENT · AFTER CLOSE
  First big consumer-tech print of the season, after the bell, with IV rank pinned at 100 — the options market is pricing a large move. Subs, ad-tier momentum and content spend are the tells. Defined-risk only; the move comes after hours.

  Watch: guidance and ad-tier commentary, not just the subscriber headline.
• Retail / consumer (XRT)
  DATA-DRIVEN
  June retail sales at 8:30a is the swing factor for the "soft inflation + strong consumer" story. A solid print confirms it; a miss flips relief into a growth scare and pressures even the leaders.

  Watch: the retail-sales reaction — good number vs. growth-scare fade.
• SPY / QQQ
  NEUTRAL · HEDGED
  SPY closed 754.81 (+0.4%), holding above the gamma flip — positive-gamma, range-y — but index flow was net-hedged (negative net call premium) and SPY IV rank is floored near 13. QQQ finished slightly red as the semis weighed. The tape keys off the TSM guide and the 8:30a data.

  Watch: the reclaim vs. fail at today's high after the data.