Net gamma exposure by strike ($M per 1% move) · estimated from the AFL options chain (Polygon).
These are the 6 strikes carrying the most dealer gamma in AFL right now. The heaviest is 125 at +0.8M per 1% move, 7.3% above spot — that is where hedging flow concentrates, and where price tends to slow down or stall.
| Strike | Net gamma | From spot | Effect |
|---|---|---|---|
| 125 | +0.8M | 7.3% | pins price |
| 121 | +0.1M | 3.9% | pins price |
| 120 | +0.4M | 3.0% | pins price |
| 118 | +0.1M | 1.3% | pins price |
| 115 | -0.3M | -1.3% | accelerates moves |
| 112 | -0.1M | -3.9% | accelerates moves |
As of the latest session, AFL is trading at $116.50 (-0.23% on the day). Net dealer gamma is negative, with the zero-gamma flip near 120.35. The call wall sits at 125 (upside magnet / resistance) and the put wall at 115 (downside level). Max pain is 118, and the options market is pricing a 1-sigma expected move of about ±2.5% (ATM IV 24%).
AFL is trading below its zero-gamma flip. Spot 116.5 sits −3.30% under 120.35, which puts dealers on the wrong side of their hedges: staying neutral forces them to sell weakness and buy strength. That is the mechanical reason moves in AFL are extending rather than fading right now. Until 120.35 is reclaimed and held, treat every level below as a through-level rather than support.
One strike dominates the map: 125, carrying +$1M per 1% move — above the current price. Positive gamma that size behaves like a wall: rallies into it get sold by hedging flow, and dips toward it get bought.
Options are cheap here: ATM implied volatility is just 24%, pricing only ±2.5% (±$2.91) to the nearest expiry. When implied vol is this compressed against a positive-gamma book, buying optionality costs little — and it is usually compressed because the hedging flow has been suppressing realised movement.
That leaves a working band of 115 to 125 — 8.6% of spot, with +7.30% of room to the call wall and −1.29% down to the put wall. In a positive-gamma tape the edge is fading the edges of that band rather than chasing either end.
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AFL is in negative gamma — spot is −3.30% below the 120.35 flip. Dealers amplify moves at these levels, so AFL trends rather than pins, and downside levels behave as through-levels instead of support.
About −3.30%, which is roughly -1.3× the ±2.5% the options are pricing for one session. Under 1× means the flip is reachable in a normal day; over 2× means the regime is unlikely to change without a catalyst. We track this across every major index on the free regime dashboard.
AFL's flip is 120.35, with spot at $116.50. Price is under it, so AFL needs to reclaim 120.35 and hold it to get back into the suppressed regime — roughly -1.3× a single session's expected move away, which is why the level matters more than any moving average on the chart right now.
AFL's call wall (125) is a magnet and resistance; the put wall (115) is support in positive gamma but a through-level once price is below the flip.
118, for the 2026-09-25 expiry — 4 days out. Spot is $116.50, so max pain sits 1.3% above the current price. In negative gamma the pull is weak: dealers are amplifying moves, not damping them toward a strike.
About +1M per 1% move into the 2026-09-25 expiry — though spot is below the zero-gamma flip, so hedging at this price runs with the move and adds to it. GEX describes the character of the tape, not the direction. How dealer gamma works →
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Estimated from the AFL options chain (Polygon) · gamma shifts intraday · educational, not financial advice · options carry substantial risk.
