Net gamma exposure by strike ($M per 1% move) · estimated from the TLT options chain (Polygon).
These are the 6 strikes carrying the most dealer gamma in TLT right now. The heaviest is 82 at +17.9M per 1% move, 0.4% above spot — that is where hedging flow concentrates, and where price tends to slow down or stall.
| Strike | Net gamma | From spot | Effect |
|---|---|---|---|
| 83.5 | +3.7M | 2.2% | pins price |
| 82.5 | +11.6M | 1.0% | pins price |
| 82 | +17.9M | 0.4% | pins price |
| 81.5 | +4.7M | -0.2% | pins price |
| 81 | -8.9M | -0.8% | accelerates moves |
| 80.5 | -5.3M | -1.4% | accelerates moves |
As of the latest session, TLT is trading at $81.68 (-0.2% on the day). Net dealer gamma is negative, with the zero-gamma flip near 81.97. The call wall sits at 82 (upside magnet / resistance) and the put wall at 81 (downside level). Max pain is 81, and the options market is pricing a 1-sigma expected move of about ±0.1% (ATM IV 3%).
TLT is trading below its zero-gamma flip. Spot 81.68 sits −0.36% under 81.97, which puts dealers on the wrong side of their hedges: staying neutral forces them to sell weakness and buy strength. That is the mechanical reason moves in TLT are extending rather than fading right now. Until 81.97 is reclaimed and held, treat every level below as a through-level rather than support.
The gamma is stacked above spot: +$42M sits overhead against +$5M underneath, a 8.9-to-1 skew. That imbalance is a magnet — dealer hedging leans price upward toward 82 — but it is also why there is so little to catch TLT if it goes the other way.
One strike dominates the map: 82, carrying +$18M per 1% move — above the current price. Positive gamma that size behaves like a wall: rallies into it get sold by hedging flow, and dips toward it get bought.
Options are cheap here: ATM implied volatility is just 3%, pricing only ±0.1% (±$0.09) to the nearest expiry. When implied vol is this compressed against a positive-gamma book, buying optionality costs little — and it is usually compressed because the hedging flow has been suppressing realised movement.
Spot is effectively at the 82 call wall (+0.39% away), the top of a 81–82 band worth 1.2% of price. This is where hedging flow does the most work: expect supply into strength until the wall is decisively cleared.
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TLT is in negative gamma — spot is −0.36% below the 81.97 flip. Dealers amplify moves at these levels, so TLT trends rather than pins, and downside levels behave as through-levels instead of support.
About −0.36%, which is roughly -3.6× the ±0.1% the options are pricing for one session. Under 1× means the flip is reachable in a normal day; over 2× means the regime is unlikely to change without a catalyst. We track this across every major index on the free regime dashboard.
TLT's flip is 81.97, with spot at $81.68. Price is under it, so TLT needs to reclaim 81.97 and hold it to get back into the suppressed regime — roughly -3.6× a single session's expected move away, which is why the level matters more than any moving average on the chart right now.
TLT's call wall (82) is a magnet and resistance; the put wall (81) is support in positive gamma but a through-level once price is below the flip.
81, for the 2026-11-02 expiry — expiring today. Spot is $81.68, so max pain sits 0.8% below the current price. In negative gamma the pull is weak: dealers are amplifying moves, not damping them toward a strike.
About +25M per 1% move into the 2026-11-02 expiry — though spot is below the zero-gamma flip, so hedging at this price runs with the move and adds to it. GEX describes the character of the tape, not the direction. How dealer gamma works →
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Estimated from the TLT options chain (Polygon) · gamma shifts intraday · educational, not financial advice · options carry substantial risk.
