Net gamma exposure by strike ($M per 1% move) · estimated from the TSM options chain (Polygon).
These are the 6 strikes carrying the most dealer gamma in TSM right now. The heaviest is 430 at +182.5M per 1% move, 0.1% below spot — that is where hedging flow concentrates, and where price tends to slow down or stall.
| Strike | Net gamma | From spot | Effect |
|---|---|---|---|
| 437.5 | +25.2M | 1.7% | pins price |
| 435 | +26.5M | 1.1% | pins price |
| 432.5 | +39.4M | 0.5% | pins price |
| 430 | +182.5M | -0.1% | pins price |
| 420 | -32.8M | -2.4% | accelerates moves |
| 410 | -10.5M | -4.7% | accelerates moves |
As of the latest session, TSM is trading at $430.26 (+0.4% on the day). Net dealer gamma is positive, with the zero-gamma flip near 428.38. The call wall sits at 430 (upside magnet / resistance) and the put wall at 420 (downside level). Max pain is 420, and the options market is pricing a 1-sigma expected move of about ±1% (ATM IV 27%).
TSM is perched right on its flip. Spot 430.26 is only +0.44% above 428.38 — about 0.4× the move the options are pricing for a single session. Technically still positive gamma, but with no margin: a normal day's range reaches the level where dealer hedging flips from damping moves to amplifying them. This is the setup that looks calm and isn't.
Unusually, the gamma mass sits below spot: +$191M underneath against only +$112M overhead. TSM has more structure supporting it than capping it, and the thin overhead is why upside moves can travel further than the walls suggest.
One strike dominates the map: 430, carrying +$183M per 1% move — below the current price. Positive gamma that size behaves like a wall: rallies into it get sold by hedging flow, and dips toward it get bought.
The options market is pricing a 1-sigma move of ±1% (±$4.27) into the nearest expiry, with ATM implied volatility at 27% — neither stretched nor giving anything away.
Note that TSM has already traded through its call wall at 430 (−0.06% away). Past the wall, that positive gamma stops acting as a magnet and starts acting as a cap — the pull that carried price here is now the thing resisting it. The 420–430 band spans 2.3% of spot.
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TSM is technically in positive gamma, but only just — spot sits +0.44% above the 428.38 flip, inside 0.4× a single session's expected move. The regime is intact but has no margin; a normal day's range can flip it.
About +0.44%, which is roughly 0.4× the ±1% the options are pricing for one session. Under 1× means the flip is reachable in a normal day; over 2× means the regime is unlikely to change without a catalyst. We track this across every major index on the free regime dashboard.
TSM's flip is 428.38, with spot at $430.26. The level TSM would have to lose is 428.38, about 0.4× the ±1% one session is priced for — inside a normal day's range, so this regime is not safe.
TSM's call wall (430) is a magnet and resistance; the put wall (420) is support in positive gamma but a through-level once price is below the flip.
420, for the 2026-09-18 expiry — expiring today. Spot is $430.26, so max pain sits 2.4% below the current price — and with positive gamma this close to expiry, that gap is the pin risk.
About +227M per 1% move into the 2026-09-18 expiry — and with spot above the zero-gamma flip, dealer hedging works against the move and damps realised volatility. GEX describes the character of the tape, not the direction. How dealer gamma works →
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Estimated from the TSM options chain (Polygon) · gamma shifts intraday · educational, not financial advice · options carry substantial risk.
