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How far is the stock expected to move? Enter a price, its implied volatility and the days to expiration — or just an at-the-money straddle price — and get the expected move in dollars and percent, plus the 68% and 95% price ranges. The exact math desks use to size an earnings move.
The one–standard–deviation (1σ) expected move is the range the options market implies the stock stays within about 68% of the time by expiration:
Expected move = Price × IV × √(days ÷ 365)
Double it for the 95% (2σ) range. Around earnings, a faster shortcut is that the expected move is roughly the price of the at-the-money straddle — the ATM call plus the ATM put for the expiration just after the report — which is the "from straddle price" mode above.
The 1σ expected move = Price × IV × √(days ÷ 365). That's the dollar move the options market is pricing for roughly a 68% probability range. A quick earnings shortcut: the expected move ≈ the at-the-money straddle price (ATM call + ATM put).
It's how far the options market thinks a stock will move on its report. Fastest estimate: take the ATM straddle for the expiration just after earnings, add the call and put prices, and that total is roughly the 1σ move. Divide by the stock price for the percentage.
A 1σ move is the range the options market implies the stock stays within about 68% of the time by expiration; 2σ covers about 95%. These are probabilities implied by option prices — not guarantees. Stocks can move beyond them.
Very close. The ATM straddle price is a widely used shortcut for the 1σ expected move because it prices both an up and a down move. Some traders multiply the straddle by ~0.85 for a tighter estimate, but straddle ≈ expected move is fine for sizing.
We call out the names with the biggest expected moves and the flow backing them in the free Discord — before the print, not after. 3,600 traders, wins and losses both on the board.