The options market is pricing a ±3.2% (±$10.56) move for AAPL's 2026-07-30 · after close report. Over its last 8 reports, AAPL has actually moved ±1.6% on average (biggest: ±3.7%). That's a 0.51× realized-vs-implied ratio, so the options look overpriced — AAPL has historically moved less than what's priced, which favors selling premium (iron condor / credit spreads) if you have an edge. It has exceeded the implied move in 25% of those prints, beaten EPS estimates 100% of the time (8 quarters), and the 1-day reaction has been negative 38% of the time (avg -0.5%).
This is a data-driven edge, not a prediction of direction — earnings are binary events and any single print can gap either way. Position and size accordingly.
| Report | Est EPS | Actual | Result | Implied | 1d move | 1w move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-30 | 1.92 | 2.01 | beat | ±3.2% | +3.2% | +5.9% |
| 2026-01-29 | 2.65 | 2.84 | beat | ±3.8% | +0.5% | +6.8% |
| 2025-10-30 | 1.73 | 1.85 | beat | ±2.8% | -0.4% | -0.6% |
| 2025-07-31 | 1.42 | 1.57 | beat | ±3.8% | -2.5% | +6% |
| 2025-05-01 | 1.61 | 1.65 | beat | ±3.7% | -3.7% | -7.4% |
| 2025-01-30 | 2.36 | 2.40 | beat | ±3.5% | -0.7% | -1.8% |
| 2024-10-31 | 1.49 | 1.64 | beat | ±3.3% | -1.3% | +0.7% |
| 2024-08-01 | 1.34 | 1.40 | beat | ±3.5% | +0.7% | -2.3% |
Historical implied vs actual moves & EPS beats/misses via Unusual Whales.
AAPL is scheduled to report on 2026-07-30, after the close. Dates can shift until the company confirms.
The options market is pricing an expected move of about ±3.2% (±$10.56) for AAPL's upcoming report — the size of the move the ATM straddle is pricing in.
Over its last 8 reports, AAPL has beaten EPS estimates 100% of the time. A beat doesn't guarantee an up move — the reaction depends on guidance and how much was already priced in.
Over the last 8 reports, AAPL moved ±1.6% on average versus a ±3.2% implied move — a 0.51× ratio, so the options have been rich (it moves less than priced). It exceeded the implied move 25% of the time.
Expected moves, gamma levels and the day's setups before the open — free.
See AAPL's positioning too: AAPL gamma exposure → · AAPL options flow →
The premium earnings board ranks every upcoming report by the biggest realized-vs-implied edge — where the options are mispriced vs how the stock actually moves — with the play on each.
Data via Unusual Whales · refreshes each session · educational, not financial advice · earnings are binary events with substantial risk.
