The options market is pricing a — move for AMZN's 2027-02-04 · after close report. Over its last 8 reports, AMZN has actually moved ±5.6% on average (biggest: ±15.3%). That's a 0.92× realized-vs-implied ratio, so the options look fairly priced — AMZN's typical move is roughly in line with what's implied. It has exceeded the implied move in 38% of those prints, beaten EPS estimates 63% of the time (8 quarters), and the 1-day reaction has been positive 38% of the time (avg +0.8%).
Longer run: across all 20 reports on record (since 2020-01-30), the options overpriced AMZN's move 40% of the time — less often than the 57% market-wide average. Median actual move was 1.08× the implied (mean implied ±6%, mean actual ±6.8%), so on this longer sample the options screen fairly priced. See how that compares across 2,422 prints →
This is a data-driven edge, not a prediction of direction — earnings are binary events and any single print can gap either way. Position and size accordingly.
| Report | Est EPS | Actual | Result | Implied | 1d move | 1w move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-29 | 2.01 | 1.89 | miss | ±6.7% | -1.4% | — |
| 2026-07-30 | 1.83 | 1.88 | beat | ±6.7% | +15.3% | +15.6% |
| 2026-04-29 | 1.60 | 1.56 | miss | ±6.4% | +0.8% | +4.5% |
| 2026-02-05 | 1.98 | 1.95 | miss | ±7.4% | -5.6% | -10.4% |
| 2025-10-30 | 1.58 | 1.95 | beat | ±6.1% | +9.6% | +9.1% |
| 2025-07-31 | 1.33 | 1.68 | beat | ±5% | -8.3% | -4.7% |
| 2025-05-01 | 1.35 | 1.59 | beat | ±5.4% | -0.1% | +1% |
| 2025-02-06 | 1.52 | 1.86 | beat | ±5.2% | -4.1% | -3.5% |
Historical implied vs actual moves & EPS beats/misses via Unusual Whales.
AMZN is scheduled to report on 2027-02-04, after the close. Dates can shift until the company confirms.
The expected move is the size of the post-earnings swing the options market is pricing in (from the ATM straddle). We show AMZN's live.
Over its last 8 reports, AMZN has beaten EPS estimates 63% of the time. A beat doesn't guarantee an up move — the reaction depends on guidance and how much was already priced in.
Over the last 8 reports, AMZN moved ±5.6% on average versus a ±6.1% implied move — a 0.92× ratio, so the options have been fairly priced. It exceeded the implied move 38% of the time.
Expected moves, gamma levels and the day's setups before the open — free.
See AMZN's positioning too: AMZN gamma exposure → · AMZN options flow →
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The premium earnings board ranks every upcoming report by the biggest realized-vs-implied edge — where the options are mispriced vs how the stock actually moves — with the play on each.
Data via Unusual Whales · refreshes each session · educational, not financial advice · earnings are binary events with substantial risk.
