The options market is pricing a ±6.7% (±$15.77) move for AMZN's 2026-07-30 · after close report. Over its last 8 reports, AMZN has actually moved ±5.4% on average (biggest: ±9.6%). That's a 0.81× realized-vs-implied ratio, so the options look overpriced — AMZN has historically moved less than what's priced, which favors selling premium (iron condor / credit spreads) if you have an edge. It has exceeded the implied move in 50% of those prints, beaten EPS estimates 75% of the time (8 quarters), and the 1-day reaction has been negative 38% of the time (avg -1.3%).
This is a data-driven edge, not a prediction of direction — earnings are binary events and any single print can gap either way. Position and size accordingly.
| Report | Est EPS | Actual | Result | Implied | 1d move | 1w move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-29 | 1.60 | 1.56 | miss | ±6.4% | +0.8% | +4.5% |
| 2026-02-05 | 1.98 | 1.95 | miss | ±7.4% | -5.6% | -10.4% |
| 2025-10-30 | 1.58 | 1.95 | beat | ±6.1% | +9.6% | +9.1% |
| 2025-07-31 | 1.33 | 1.68 | beat | ±5% | -8.3% | -4.7% |
| 2025-05-01 | 1.35 | 1.59 | beat | ±5.4% | -0.1% | +1% |
| 2025-02-06 | 1.52 | 1.86 | beat | ±5.2% | -4.1% | -3.5% |
| 2024-10-31 | 1.14 | 1.43 | beat | ±5.8% | +6.2% | +12.7% |
| 2024-08-01 | 1.05 | 1.23 | beat | ±6% | -8.8% | -9.9% |
Historical implied vs actual moves & EPS beats/misses via Unusual Whales.
AMZN is scheduled to report on 2026-07-30, after the close. Dates can shift until the company confirms.
The options market is pricing an expected move of about ±6.7% (±$15.77) for AMZN's upcoming report — the size of the move the ATM straddle is pricing in.
Over its last 8 reports, AMZN has beaten EPS estimates 75% of the time. A beat doesn't guarantee an up move — the reaction depends on guidance and how much was already priced in.
Over the last 8 reports, AMZN moved ±5.4% on average versus a ±6.7% implied move — a 0.81× ratio, so the options have been rich (it moves less than priced). It exceeded the implied move 50% of the time.
Expected moves, gamma levels and the day's setups before the open — free.
See AMZN's positioning too: AMZN gamma exposure → · AMZN options flow →
The premium earnings board ranks every upcoming report by the biggest realized-vs-implied edge — where the options are mispriced vs how the stock actually moves — with the play on each.
Data via Unusual Whales · refreshes each session · educational, not financial advice · earnings are binary events with substantial risk.
