The options market is pricing a ±9.9% (±$12.13) move for PLTR's 2026-08-03 · after close report. Over its last 8 reports, PLTR has actually moved ±12.4% on average (biggest: ±24%). That's a 1.25× realized-vs-implied ratio, so the options look underpriced — PLTR has historically moved more than the market prices in, which favors buying premium (long straddle/strangle) into the print. It has exceeded the implied move in 25% of those prints, beaten EPS estimates 25% of the time (8 quarters), and the 1-day reaction has been positive 63% of the time (avg +5.7%).
This is a data-driven edge, not a prediction of direction — earnings are binary events and any single print can gap either way. Position and size accordingly.
| Report | Est EPS | Actual | Result | Implied | 1d move | 1w move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-04 | 0.29 | 0.25 | miss | ±8.2% | -6.9% | -6.3% |
| 2026-02-02 | 0.23 | 0.24 | beat | ±9.4% | +6.8% | -3.3% |
| 2025-11-03 | 0.17 | 0.18 | beat | ±8.6% | -7.9% | -6.5% |
| 2025-08-04 | 0.14 | 0.13 | miss | ±10.2% | +7.8% | +13.7% |
| 2025-05-05 | 0.13 | 0.04 | miss | ±12.2% | -12% | -4.3% |
| 2025-02-03 | 0.11 | -0.01 | miss | ±11.9% | +24% | +39.3% |
| 2024-11-04 | 0.09 | 0.06 | miss | ±11.4% | +23.5% | +45.6% |
| 2024-08-05 | 0.08 | 0.03 | miss | ±12.4% | +10.4% | +22% |
Historical implied vs actual moves & EPS beats/misses via Unusual Whales.
PLTR is scheduled to report on 2026-08-03, after the close. Dates can shift until the company confirms.
The options market is pricing an expected move of about ±9.9% (±$12.13) for PLTR's upcoming report — the size of the move the ATM straddle is pricing in.
Over its last 8 reports, PLTR has beaten EPS estimates 25% of the time. A beat doesn't guarantee an up move — the reaction depends on guidance and how much was already priced in.
Over the last 8 reports, PLTR moved ±12.4% on average versus a ±9.9% implied move — a 1.25× ratio, so the options have been cheap (it moves more than priced). It exceeded the implied move 25% of the time.
Expected moves, gamma levels and the day's setups before the open — free.
See PLTR's positioning too: PLTR gamma exposure → · PLTR options flow →
The premium earnings board ranks every upcoming report by the biggest realized-vs-implied edge — where the options are mispriced vs how the stock actually moves — with the play on each.
Data via Unusual Whales · refreshes each session · educational, not financial advice · earnings are binary events with substantial risk.
