The options market is pricing a — move for MSFT's 2026-11-04 · after close report. Over its last 8 reports, MSFT has actually moved ±7% on average (biggest: ±15.5%). That's a 1.63× realized-vs-implied ratio, so the options look underpriced — MSFT has historically moved more than the market prices in, which favors buying premium (long straddle/strangle) into the print. It has exceeded the implied move in 75% of those prints, beaten EPS estimates 100% of the time (8 quarters), and the 1-day reaction has been negative 38% of the time (avg -0.2%).
This is a data-driven edge, not a prediction of direction — earnings are binary events and any single print can gap either way. Position and size accordingly.
| Report | Est EPS | Actual | Result | Implied | 1d move | 1w move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-29 | 4.21 | 4.74 | beat | ±5.8% | +15.5% | — |
| 2026-04-29 | 4.07 | 4.27 | beat | ±5.5% | -3.9% | -2.5% |
| 2026-01-28 | 3.88 | 4.14 | beat | ±4.5% | -10% | -14% |
| 2025-10-29 | 3.65 | 4.13 | beat | ±4.3% | -2.9% | -6.4% |
| 2025-07-30 | 3.35 | 3.65 | beat | ±3.2% | +3.9% | +2.3% |
| 2025-04-30 | 3.20 | 3.46 | beat | ±3.7% | +7.6% | +9.6% |
| 2025-01-29 | 3.11 | 3.23 | beat | ±3.6% | -6.2% | -6.6% |
| 2024-10-30 | 3.08 | 3.30 | beat | ±4% | -6.1% | -2.9% |
Historical implied vs actual moves & EPS beats/misses via Unusual Whales.
MSFT is scheduled to report on 2026-11-04, after the close. Dates can shift until the company confirms.
The expected move is the size of the post-earnings swing the options market is pricing in (from the ATM straddle). We show MSFT's live.
Over its last 8 reports, MSFT has beaten EPS estimates 100% of the time. A beat doesn't guarantee an up move — the reaction depends on guidance and how much was already priced in.
Over the last 8 reports, MSFT moved ±7% on average versus a ±4.3% implied move — a 1.63× ratio, so the options have been cheap (it moves more than priced). It exceeded the implied move 75% of the time.
Expected moves, gamma levels and the day's setups before the open — free.
See MSFT's positioning too: MSFT gamma exposure → · MSFT options flow →
The premium earnings board ranks every upcoming report by the biggest realized-vs-implied edge — where the options are mispriced vs how the stock actually moves — with the play on each.
Data via Unusual Whales · refreshes each session · educational, not financial advice · earnings are binary events with substantial risk.
