The options market is pricing a — move for META's 2026-11-04 · after close report. Over its last 8 reports, META has actually moved ±7.4% on average (biggest: ±11.3%). That's a 1.18× realized-vs-implied ratio, so the options look underpriced — META has historically moved more than the market prices in, which favors buying premium (long straddle/strangle) into the print. It has exceeded the implied move in 63% of those prints, beaten EPS estimates 88% of the time (8 quarters), and the 1-day reaction has been negative 50% of the time (avg -0.6%).
This is a data-driven edge, not a prediction of direction — earnings are binary events and any single print can gap either way. Position and size accordingly.
| Report | Est EPS | Actual | Result | Implied | 1d move | 1w move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-29 | 7.10 | 6.18 | miss | ±7.1% | -8% | — |
| 2026-04-29 | 6.71 | 7.31 | beat | ±6.5% | -8.6% | -8.4% |
| 2026-01-28 | 8.21 | 8.88 | beat | ±5.9% | +10.4% | +0% |
| 2025-10-29 | 6.61 | 7.25 | beat | ±5.7% | -11.3% | -15.4% |
| 2025-07-30 | 5.83 | 7.14 | beat | ±5.1% | +11.3% | +11% |
| 2025-04-30 | 5.22 | 6.43 | beat | ±6.1% | +4.2% | +8.7% |
| 2025-01-29 | 6.68 | 8.02 | beat | ±6.3% | +1.6% | +4.2% |
| 2024-10-30 | 5.19 | 6.03 | beat | ±7.5% | -4.1% | -3.3% |
Historical implied vs actual moves & EPS beats/misses via Unusual Whales.
META is scheduled to report on 2026-11-04, after the close. Dates can shift until the company confirms.
The expected move is the size of the post-earnings swing the options market is pricing in (from the ATM straddle). We show META's live.
Over its last 8 reports, META has beaten EPS estimates 88% of the time. A beat doesn't guarantee an up move — the reaction depends on guidance and how much was already priced in.
Over the last 8 reports, META moved ±7.4% on average versus a ±6.3% implied move — a 1.18× ratio, so the options have been cheap (it moves more than priced). It exceeded the implied move 63% of the time.
Expected moves, gamma levels and the day's setups before the open — free.
See META's positioning too: META gamma exposure → · META options flow →
The premium earnings board ranks every upcoming report by the biggest realized-vs-implied edge — where the options are mispriced vs how the stock actually moves — with the play on each.
Data via Unusual Whales · refreshes each session · educational, not financial advice · earnings are binary events with substantial risk.
