The options market is pricing a ±14.9% (±$4.12) move for SMCI's 2026-08-11 · after close report. Over its last 8 reports, SMCI has actually moved ±13.8% on average (biggest: ±24.5%). That's a 0.93× realized-vs-implied ratio, so the options look fairly priced — SMCI's typical move is roughly in line with what's implied. It has exceeded the implied move in 63% of those prints, beaten EPS estimates 29% of the time (7 quarters), and the 1-day reaction has been negative 38% of the time (avg -3.5%).
This is a data-driven edge, not a prediction of direction — earnings are binary events and any single print can gap either way. Position and size accordingly.
| Report | Est EPS | Actual | Result | Implied | 1d move | 1w move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-05 | 0.63 | 0.68 | beat | ±12.3% | +24.5% | +17.8% |
| 2026-02-03 | 0.49 | 0.56 | beat | ±11.3% | +13.8% | +12.3% |
| 2025-11-04 | 0.28 | 0.26 | miss | ±9.3% | -11.3% | -18.1% |
| 2025-08-05 | 0.44 | 0.31 | miss | ±10.4% | -18.3% | -18.9% |
| 2025-05-06 | 0.30 | 0.19 | miss | ±10% | -1.4% | +18.1% |
| 2025-02-11 | 0.60 | 0.51 | miss | ±18% | +2.8% | +44.5% |
| 2024-11-05 | 0.75 | — | — | ±20.5% | -18.1% | -21.7% |
| 2024-08-06 | 0.81 | 0.05 | miss | ±11% | -20.1% | -8% |
Historical implied vs actual moves & EPS beats/misses via Unusual Whales.
SMCI is scheduled to report on 2026-08-11, after the close. Dates can shift until the company confirms.
The options market is pricing an expected move of about ±14.9% (±$4.12) for SMCI's upcoming report — the size of the move the ATM straddle is pricing in.
Over its last 7 reports, SMCI has beaten EPS estimates 29% of the time. A beat doesn't guarantee an up move — the reaction depends on guidance and how much was already priced in.
Over the last 8 reports, SMCI moved ±13.8% on average versus a ±14.9% implied move — a 0.93× ratio, so the options have been fairly priced. It exceeded the implied move 63% of the time.
Expected moves, gamma levels and the day's setups before the open — free.
See SMCI's positioning too: SMCI gamma exposure → · SMCI options flow →
The premium earnings board ranks every upcoming report by the biggest realized-vs-implied edge — where the options are mispriced vs how the stock actually moves — with the play on each.
Data via Unusual Whales · refreshes each session · educational, not financial advice · earnings are binary events with substantial risk.
