The options market is pricing a — move for NFLX's 2026-10-20 · after close report. Over its last 8 reports, NFLX has actually moved ±7.1% on average (biggest: ±11.1%). That's a 1.06× realized-vs-implied ratio, so the options look fairly priced — NFLX's typical move is roughly in line with what's implied. It has exceeded the implied move in 50% of those prints, beaten EPS estimates 75% of the time (8 quarters), and the 1-day reaction has been negative 38% of the time (avg -1.5%).
This is a data-driven edge, not a prediction of direction — earnings are binary events and any single print can gap either way. Position and size accordingly.
| Report | Est EPS | Actual | Result | Implied | 1d move | 1w move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-16 | 0.79 | 0.80 | beat | ±8.1% | -7.3% | -7.3% |
| 2026-04-16 | 0.82 | 0.70 | miss | ±6.2% | -9.7% | -13.9% |
| 2026-01-20 | 0.55 | 0.56 | beat | ±7% | -2.2% | -1.9% |
| 2025-10-21 | 0.69 | 0.06 | miss | ±6.1% | -10.1% | -11.2% |
| 2025-07-17 | 0.71 | 0.72 | beat | ±5.3% | -5.1% | -7.3% |
| 2025-04-17 | 0.57 | 0.66 | beat | ±7.4% | +1.5% | +12.7% |
| 2025-01-21 | 0.42 | 0.43 | beat | ±7% | +9.7% | +11.7% |
| 2024-10-17 | 0.51 | 0.54 | beat | ±6.2% | +11.1% | +9.7% |
Historical implied vs actual moves & EPS beats/misses via Unusual Whales.
NFLX is scheduled to report on 2026-10-20, after the close. Dates can shift until the company confirms.
The expected move is the size of the post-earnings swing the options market is pricing in (from the ATM straddle). We show NFLX's live.
Over its last 8 reports, NFLX has beaten EPS estimates 75% of the time. A beat doesn't guarantee an up move — the reaction depends on guidance and how much was already priced in.
Over the last 8 reports, NFLX moved ±7.1% on average versus a ±6.7% implied move — a 1.06× ratio, so the options have been fairly priced. It exceeded the implied move 50% of the time.
Expected moves, gamma levels and the day's setups before the open — free.
See NFLX's positioning too: NFLX gamma exposure → · NFLX options flow →
The premium earnings board ranks every upcoming report by the biggest realized-vs-implied edge — where the options are mispriced vs how the stock actually moves — with the play on each.
Data via Unusual Whales · refreshes each session · educational, not financial advice · earnings are binary events with substantial risk.
