The options market is pricing a ±6.2% (±$10.07) move for COIN's 2026-07-30 · after close report. Over its last 8 reports, COIN has actually moved ±9.1% on average (biggest: ±16.7%). That's a 1.48× realized-vs-implied ratio, so the options look underpriced — COIN has historically moved more than the market prices in, which favors buying premium (long straddle/strangle) into the print. It has exceeded the implied move in 50% of those prints, beaten EPS estimates 63% of the time (8 quarters), and the 1-day reaction has been negative 38% of the time (avg -2.7%).
This is a data-driven edge, not a prediction of direction — earnings are binary events and any single print can gap either way. Position and size accordingly.
| Report | Est EPS | Actual | Result | Implied | 1d move | 1w move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-07 | 0.36 | -0.17 | miss | ±6.3% | +4.2% | +9.9% |
| 2026-02-12 | 0.61 | 0.66 | beat | ±7.2% | +16.5% | +17.6% |
| 2025-10-30 | 1.03 | 1.44 | beat | ±5.7% | +4.6% | -10.1% |
| 2025-07-31 | 1.19 | 0.12 | miss | ±5.4% | -16.7% | -17.7% |
| 2025-05-08 | 1.85 | 1.94 | beat | ±5.5% | -3.5% | +18.4% |
| 2025-02-13 | 1.07 | 3.39 | beat | ±7.9% | -8% | -13.9% |
| 2024-10-30 | 0.39 | 0.62 | beat | ±7.4% | -15.3% | +20.1% |
| 2024-08-01 | 1.07 | 1.07 | inline | ±6.7% | -3.9% | -9.6% |
Historical implied vs actual moves & EPS beats/misses via Unusual Whales.
COIN is scheduled to report on 2026-07-30, after the close. Dates can shift until the company confirms.
The options market is pricing an expected move of about ±6.2% (±$10.07) for COIN's upcoming report — the size of the move the ATM straddle is pricing in.
Over its last 8 reports, COIN has beaten EPS estimates 63% of the time. A beat doesn't guarantee an up move — the reaction depends on guidance and how much was already priced in.
Over the last 8 reports, COIN moved ±9.1% on average versus a ±6.2% implied move — a 1.48× ratio, so the options have been cheap (it moves more than priced). It exceeded the implied move 50% of the time.
Expected moves, gamma levels and the day's setups before the open — free.
See COIN's positioning too: COIN gamma exposure → · COIN options flow →
The premium earnings board ranks every upcoming report by the biggest realized-vs-implied edge — where the options are mispriced vs how the stock actually moves — with the play on each.
Data via Unusual Whales · refreshes each session · educational, not financial advice · earnings are binary events with substantial risk.
