The options market is pricing a ±5.3% (±$20.53) move for ADI's 2026-08-19 · before open report. Over its last 8 reports, ADI has actually moved ±4.5% on average (biggest: ±9.7%). That's a 0.86× realized-vs-implied ratio, so the options look overpriced — ADI has historically moved less than what's priced, which favors selling premium (iron condor / credit spreads) if you have an edge. It has exceeded the implied move in 50% of those prints, beaten EPS estimates 100% of the time (8 quarters), and the 1-day reaction has been positive 63% of the time (avg +1.9%).
Longer run: across all 19 reports on record (since 2019-11-26), the options overpriced ADI's move 42% of the time — less often than the 57% market-wide average. Median actual move was 1.13× the implied (mean implied ±3.9%, mean actual ±4.5%), so on this longer sample the options screen cheap. See how that compares across 2,422 prints →
This is a data-driven edge, not a prediction of direction — earnings are binary events and any single print can gap either way. Position and size accordingly.
| Report | Est EPS | Actual | Result | Implied | 1d move | 1w move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-20 | 2.89 | 3.09 | beat | ±6.3% | -3.9% | +1.4% |
| 2026-02-18 | 2.31 | 2.46 | beat | ±5.3% | +2.6% | +5.5% |
| 2025-11-25 | 2.22 | 2.26 | beat | ±4.2% | +5.3% | +11.3% |
| 2025-08-20 | 1.93 | 2.05 | beat | ±5% | +6.3% | +10.9% |
| 2025-05-22 | 1.69 | 1.85 | beat | ±4.1% | -4.6% | -3% |
| 2025-02-19 | 1.54 | 1.63 | beat | ±4.4% | +9.7% | +6.8% |
| 2024-11-26 | 1.64 | 1.67 | beat | ±4.3% | -2% | -0.2% |
| 2024-08-21 | 1.50 | 1.58 | beat | ±4.3% | +1.8% | +3.7% |
Historical implied vs actual moves & EPS beats/misses via Unusual Whales.
ADI is scheduled to report on 2026-08-19, before the open. Dates can shift until the company confirms.
The options market is pricing an expected move of about ±5.3% (±$20.53) for ADI's upcoming report — the size of the move the ATM straddle is pricing in.
Over its last 8 reports, ADI has beaten EPS estimates 100% of the time. A beat doesn't guarantee an up move — the reaction depends on guidance and how much was already priced in.
Over the last 8 reports, ADI moved ±4.5% on average versus a ±5.3% implied move — a 0.86× ratio, so the options have been rich (it moves less than priced). It exceeded the implied move 50% of the time.
Expected moves, gamma levels and the day's setups before the open — free.
See ADI's positioning too: ADI gamma exposure → · ADI options flow →
The premium earnings board ranks every upcoming report by the biggest realized-vs-implied edge — where the options are mispriced vs how the stock actually moves — with the play on each.
Data via Unusual Whales · refreshes each session · educational, not financial advice · earnings are binary events with substantial risk.
