The options market is pricing a — move for AI's 2026-09-02 · after close report. Over its last 8 reports, AI has actually moved ±8.5% on average (biggest: ±20.9%). That's a 0.71× realized-vs-implied ratio, so the options look overpriced — AI has historically moved less than what's priced, which favors selling premium (iron condor / credit spreads) if you have an edge. It has exceeded the implied move in 25% of those prints, beaten EPS estimates 0% of the time (8 quarters), and the 1-day reaction has been negative 38% of the time (avg -2.7%).
This is a data-driven edge, not a prediction of direction — earnings are binary events and any single print can gap either way. Position and size accordingly.
| Report | Est EPS | Actual | Result | Implied | 1d move | 1w move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-03 | -0.38 | -0.72 | miss | ±13.8% | -1.2% | +0.8% |
| 2026-02-25 | -0.29 | -0.94 | miss | ±10.7% | -18.5% | -9.9% |
| 2025-12-03 | -0.32 | -0.75 | miss | ±10.1% | +2.1% | +5.4% |
| 2025-09-03 | -0.38 | -0.86 | miss | ±9.8% | -7.3% | -6.4% |
| 2025-05-28 | -0.20 | -0.59 | miss | ±11.7% | +20.9% | +14.2% |
| 2025-02-26 | -0.25 | -0.62 | miss | ±12.8% | -9.7% | -14.4% |
| 2024-12-09 | -0.16 | -0.52 | miss | ±14.9% | +0.1% | +3% |
| 2024-09-04 | -0.13 | -0.50 | miss | ±12.7% | -8.2% | -7% |
Historical implied vs actual moves & EPS beats/misses via Unusual Whales.
AI is scheduled to report on 2026-09-02, after the close. Dates can shift until the company confirms.
The expected move is the size of the post-earnings swing the options market is pricing in (from the ATM straddle). We show AI's live.
Over its last 8 reports, AI has beaten EPS estimates 0% of the time. A beat doesn't guarantee an up move — the reaction depends on guidance and how much was already priced in.
Over the last 8 reports, AI moved ±8.5% on average versus a ±12.1% implied move — a 0.71× ratio, so the options have been rich (it moves less than priced). It exceeded the implied move 25% of the time.
Expected moves, gamma levels and the day's setups before the open — free.
See AI's positioning too: AI gamma exposure → · AI options flow →
The premium earnings board ranks every upcoming report by the biggest realized-vs-implied edge — where the options are mispriced vs how the stock actually moves — with the play on each.
Data via Unusual Whales · refreshes each session · educational, not financial advice · earnings are binary events with substantial risk.
