The options market is pricing a — move for AIG's 2026-11-03 · after close report. Over its last 8 reports, AIG has actually moved ±3.2% on average (biggest: ±5.4%). That's a 0.94× realized-vs-implied ratio, so the options look fairly priced — AIG's typical move is roughly in line with what's implied. It has exceeded the implied move in 50% of those prints, beaten EPS estimates 100% of the time (8 quarters), and the 1-day reaction has been positive 50% of the time (avg +0.4%).
Longer run: across all 19 reports on record (since 2022-02-16), the options overpriced AIG's move 58% of the time — more often than the 57% market-wide average. Median actual move was 0.71× the implied (mean implied ±3.6%, mean actual ±3.2%), so on this longer sample the options screen rich. See how that compares across 2,422 prints →
This is a data-driven edge, not a prediction of direction — earnings are binary events and any single print can gap either way. Position and size accordingly.
| Report | Est EPS | Actual | Result | Implied | 1d move | 1w move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-06 | 1.89 | 2.00 | beat | ±2.9% | -1.5% | -4.9% |
| 2026-04-30 | 1.90 | 2.11 | beat | ±3.8% | +5.3% | +2.2% |
| 2026-02-10 | 1.89 | 1.96 | beat | ±3.4% | +4.6% | +5.9% |
| 2025-11-04 | 1.68 | 2.20 | beat | ±3.2% | -5.4% | -5.6% |
| 2025-08-06 | 1.58 | 1.81 | beat | ±3.2% | -3.1% | +1% |
| 2025-05-01 | 1.05 | 1.17 | beat | ±3.3% | +3.5% | +1.2% |
| 2025-02-11 | 1.26 | 1.30 | beat | ±3.3% | +1.2% | -0.6% |
| 2024-11-04 | 1.13 | 1.23 | beat | ±4.6% | -1.2% | -1.2% |
Historical implied vs actual moves & EPS beats/misses via Unusual Whales.
AIG is scheduled to report on 2026-11-03, after the close. Dates can shift until the company confirms.
The expected move is the size of the post-earnings swing the options market is pricing in (from the ATM straddle). We show AIG's live.
Over its last 8 reports, AIG has beaten EPS estimates 100% of the time. A beat doesn't guarantee an up move — the reaction depends on guidance and how much was already priced in.
Over the last 8 reports, AIG moved ±3.2% on average versus a ±3.5% implied move — a 0.94× ratio, so the options have been fairly priced. It exceeded the implied move 50% of the time.
Expected moves, gamma levels and the day's setups before the open — free.
See AIG's positioning too: AIG gamma exposure → · AIG options flow →
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The premium earnings board ranks every upcoming report by the biggest realized-vs-implied edge — where the options are mispriced vs how the stock actually moves — with the play on each.
Data via Unusual Whales · refreshes each session · educational, not financial advice · earnings are binary events with substantial risk.
