The options market is pricing a — move for ARM's 2026-11-04 · after close report. Over its last 8 reports, ARM has actually moved ±6.4% on average (biggest: ±13.4%). That's a 0.74× realized-vs-implied ratio, so the options look overpriced — ARM has historically moved less than what's priced, which favors selling premium (iron condor / credit spreads) if you have an edge. It has exceeded the implied move in 13% of those prints, beaten EPS estimates 0% of the time (8 quarters), and the 1-day reaction has been negative 38% of the time (avg -2.1%).
This is a data-driven edge, not a prediction of direction — earnings are binary events and any single print can gap either way. Position and size accordingly.
| Report | Est EPS | Actual | Result | Implied | 1d move | 1w move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-29 | 0.40 | 0.20 | miss | ±10.1% | +7.4% | — |
| 2026-05-06 | 0.58 | 0.36 | miss | ±11.7% | -10.1% | -6.8% |
| 2026-02-04 | 0.41 | 0.21 | miss | ±7.9% | +5.7% | +19.4% |
| 2025-11-05 | 0.33 | 0.15 | miss | ±7.4% | -1.2% | -7.1% |
| 2025-07-30 | 0.34 | 0.16 | miss | ±7.3% | -13.4% | -16.7% |
| 2025-05-07 | 0.52 | 0.42 | miss | ±7.1% | -6.2% | +7.5% |
| 2025-02-05 | 0.34 | 0.24 | miss | ±9.1% | -3.3% | -10.3% |
| 2024-11-06 | 0.25 | 0.14 | miss | ±9.4% | +4.1% | -6.6% |
Historical implied vs actual moves & EPS beats/misses via Unusual Whales.
ARM is scheduled to report on 2026-11-04, after the close. Dates can shift until the company confirms.
The expected move is the size of the post-earnings swing the options market is pricing in (from the ATM straddle). We show ARM's live.
Over its last 8 reports, ARM has beaten EPS estimates 0% of the time. A beat doesn't guarantee an up move — the reaction depends on guidance and how much was already priced in.
Over the last 8 reports, ARM moved ±6.4% on average versus a ±8.7% implied move — a 0.74× ratio, so the options have been rich (it moves less than priced). It exceeded the implied move 13% of the time.
Expected moves, gamma levels and the day's setups before the open — free.
See ARM's positioning too: ARM gamma exposure → · ARM options flow →
The premium earnings board ranks every upcoming report by the biggest realized-vs-implied edge — where the options are mispriced vs how the stock actually moves — with the play on each.
Data via Unusual Whales · refreshes each session · educational, not financial advice · earnings are binary events with substantial risk.
