The options market is pricing a — move for ASML's 2026-10-21 · after close report. Over its last 8 reports, ASML has actually moved ±4.5% on average (biggest: ±8.3%). That's a 0.81× realized-vs-implied ratio, so the options look overpriced — ASML has historically moved less than what's priced, which favors selling premium (iron condor / credit spreads) if you have an edge. It has exceeded the implied move in 38% of those prints, beaten EPS estimates 75% of the time (8 quarters), and the 1-day reaction has been negative 38% of the time (avg -2.1%).
This is a data-driven edge, not a prediction of direction — earnings are binary events and any single print can gap either way. Position and size accordingly.
| Report | Est EPS | Actual | Result | Implied | 1d move | 1w move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-15 | 7.98 | 8.81 | beat | ±6.1% | +2.2% | +1.5% |
| 2026-04-15 | 7.72 | 8.37 | beat | ±5.4% | -2.4% | -3.9% |
| 2026-01-28 | 9.01 | 8.55 | miss | ±5.8% | -2.2% | -4% |
| 2025-10-15 | 6.27 | 6.41 | beat | ±6.3% | +2.7% | +4.3% |
| 2025-07-16 | 5.94 | 4.55 | miss | ±4.9% | -8.3% | -14.3% |
| 2025-04-16 | 6.12 | 6.31 | beat | ±5.5% | -7.1% | -6.5% |
| 2025-01-29 | 7.18 | 7.30 | beat | ±6.1% | +4.3% | +7% |
| 2024-10-16 | 5.24 | 5.80 | beat | ±3.8% | -6.4% | -1.3% |
Historical implied vs actual moves & EPS beats/misses via Unusual Whales.
ASML is scheduled to report on 2026-10-21, after the close. Dates can shift until the company confirms.
The expected move is the size of the post-earnings swing the options market is pricing in (from the ATM straddle). We show ASML's live.
Over its last 8 reports, ASML has beaten EPS estimates 75% of the time. A beat doesn't guarantee an up move — the reaction depends on guidance and how much was already priced in.
Over the last 8 reports, ASML moved ±4.5% on average versus a ±5.5% implied move — a 0.81× ratio, so the options have been rich (it moves less than priced). It exceeded the implied move 38% of the time.
Expected moves, gamma levels and the day's setups before the open — free.
See ASML's positioning too: ASML gamma exposure → · ASML options flow →
The premium earnings board ranks every upcoming report by the biggest realized-vs-implied edge — where the options are mispriced vs how the stock actually moves — with the play on each.
Data via Unusual Whales · refreshes each session · educational, not financial advice · earnings are binary events with substantial risk.
