The options market is pricing a ±10.7% (±$0.3) move for BBAI's 2026-07-30 · after close report. Over its last 8 reports, BBAI has actually moved ±8.7% on average (biggest: ±20.5%). That's a 0.81× realized-vs-implied ratio, so the options look overpriced — BBAI has historically moved less than what's priced, which favors selling premium (iron condor / credit spreads) if you have an edge. It has exceeded the implied move in 13% of those prints, beaten EPS estimates 63% of the time (8 quarters), and the 1-day reaction has been negative 38% of the time (avg -5.7%).
This is a data-driven edge, not a prediction of direction — earnings are binary events and any single print can gap either way. Position and size accordingly.
| Report | Est EPS | Actual | Result | Implied | 1d move | 1w move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-05 | -0.08 | -0.08 | inline | ±13.1% | +5.6% | +1.2% |
| 2026-03-02 | -0.05 | -0.04 | beat | ±13.2% | -7.3% | +2.4% |
| 2025-11-10 | -0.06 | -0.07 | miss | ±12.9% | +6.1% | -2.5% |
| 2025-08-11 | -0.07 | -0.06 | beat | ±17.4% | -15.8% | -17.5% |
| 2025-05-01 | -0.06 | -0.10 | miss | ±14% | +0.6% | -2.7% |
| 2025-03-06 | -0.05 | -0.04 | beat | ±15.2% | -20.5% | -22.1% |
| 2024-11-05 | -0.07 | -0.05 | beat | ±24.2% | -9.7% | +3.4% |
| 2024-08-01 | -0.07 | -0.04 | beat | ±13.9% | -4.3% | -12.1% |
Historical implied vs actual moves & EPS beats/misses via Unusual Whales.
BBAI is scheduled to report on 2026-07-30, after the close. Dates can shift until the company confirms.
The options market is pricing an expected move of about ±10.7% (±$0.3) for BBAI's upcoming report — the size of the move the ATM straddle is pricing in.
Over its last 8 reports, BBAI has beaten EPS estimates 63% of the time. A beat doesn't guarantee an up move — the reaction depends on guidance and how much was already priced in.
Over the last 8 reports, BBAI moved ±8.7% on average versus a ±10.7% implied move — a 0.81× ratio, so the options have been rich (it moves less than priced). It exceeded the implied move 13% of the time.
Expected moves, gamma levels and the day's setups before the open — free.
See BBAI's positioning too: BBAI gamma exposure → · BBAI options flow →
The premium earnings board ranks every upcoming report by the biggest realized-vs-implied edge — where the options are mispriced vs how the stock actually moves — with the play on each.
Data via Unusual Whales · refreshes each session · educational, not financial advice · earnings are binary events with substantial risk.
