The options market is pricing a ±6.3% (±$50.96) move for CAT's 2026-08-04 · before open report. Over its last 8 reports, CAT has actually moved ±4.4% on average (biggest: ±11.6%). That's a 0.71× realized-vs-implied ratio, so the options look overpriced — CAT has historically moved less than what's priced, which favors selling premium (iron condor / credit spreads) if you have an edge. It has exceeded the implied move in 38% of those prints, beaten EPS estimates 63% of the time (8 quarters), and the 1-day reaction has been positive 75% of the time (avg +2.7%).
This is a data-driven edge, not a prediction of direction — earnings are binary events and any single print can gap either way. Position and size accordingly.
| Report | Est EPS | Actual | Result | Implied | 1d move | 1w move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-30 | 4.55 | 5.54 | beat | ±4.6% | +9.9% | +14.4% |
| 2026-01-29 | 4.67 | 5.16 | beat | ±4.8% | +3.4% | +7.5% |
| 2025-10-29 | 4.52 | 4.95 | beat | ±4.4% | +11.6% | +4.4% |
| 2025-08-05 | 4.88 | 4.72 | miss | ±3.6% | +0.1% | -5.8% |
| 2025-04-30 | 4.30 | 4.25 | miss | ±4.4% | +0.6% | +4.4% |
| 2025-01-30 | 4.97 | 5.14 | beat | ±3.5% | -4.6% | -8.7% |
| 2024-10-30 | 5.33 | 5.17 | miss | ±4.1% | -2.1% | -1.1% |
| 2024-08-06 | 5.53 | 5.99 | beat | ±5.9% | +3% | +6.1% |
Historical implied vs actual moves & EPS beats/misses via Unusual Whales.
CAT is scheduled to report on 2026-08-04, before the open. Dates can shift until the company confirms.
The options market is pricing an expected move of about ±6.3% (±$50.96) for CAT's upcoming report — the size of the move the ATM straddle is pricing in.
Over its last 8 reports, CAT has beaten EPS estimates 63% of the time. A beat doesn't guarantee an up move — the reaction depends on guidance and how much was already priced in.
Over the last 8 reports, CAT moved ±4.4% on average versus a ±6.3% implied move — a 0.71× ratio, so the options have been rich (it moves less than priced). It exceeded the implied move 38% of the time.
Expected moves, gamma levels and the day's setups before the open — free.
See CAT's positioning too: CAT gamma exposure → · CAT options flow →
The premium earnings board ranks every upcoming report by the biggest realized-vs-implied edge — where the options are mispriced vs how the stock actually moves — with the play on each.
Data via Unusual Whales · refreshes each session · educational, not financial advice · earnings are binary events with substantial risk.
