The options market is pricing a — move for CAT's 2026-11-04 · after close report. Over its last 8 reports, CAT has actually moved ±4.8% on average (biggest: ±11.6%). That's a 1.07× realized-vs-implied ratio, so the options look fairly priced — CAT's typical move is roughly in line with what's implied. It has exceeded the implied move in 38% of those prints, beaten EPS estimates 63% of the time (8 quarters), and the 1-day reaction has been positive 75% of the time (avg +3.1%).
Longer run: across all 19 reports on record (since 2020-01-31), the options overpriced CAT's move 58% of the time — more often than the 57% market-wide average. Median actual move was 0.86× the implied (mean implied ±4.3%, mean actual ±4.6%), so on this longer sample the options screen rich. See how that compares across 2,422 prints →
This is a data-driven edge, not a prediction of direction — earnings are binary events and any single print can gap either way. Position and size accordingly.
| Report | Est EPS | Actual | Result | Implied | 1d move | 1w move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-04 | 6.25 | 8.17 | beat | ±6.2% | +5.6% | +0.9% |
| 2026-04-30 | 4.55 | 5.54 | beat | ±4.6% | +9.9% | +14.4% |
| 2026-01-29 | 4.67 | 5.16 | beat | ±4.8% | +3.4% | +7.5% |
| 2025-10-29 | 4.52 | 4.95 | beat | ±4.4% | +11.6% | +4.4% |
| 2025-08-05 | 4.88 | 4.72 | miss | ±3.6% | +0.1% | -5.8% |
| 2025-04-30 | 4.30 | 4.25 | miss | ±4.4% | +0.6% | +4.4% |
| 2025-01-30 | 4.97 | 5.14 | beat | ±3.5% | -4.6% | -8.7% |
| 2024-10-30 | 5.33 | 5.17 | miss | ±4.1% | -2.1% | -1.1% |
Historical implied vs actual moves & EPS beats/misses via Unusual Whales.
CAT is scheduled to report on 2026-11-04, after the close. Dates can shift until the company confirms.
The expected move is the size of the post-earnings swing the options market is pricing in (from the ATM straddle). We show CAT's live.
Over its last 8 reports, CAT has beaten EPS estimates 63% of the time. A beat doesn't guarantee an up move — the reaction depends on guidance and how much was already priced in.
Over the last 8 reports, CAT moved ±4.8% on average versus a ±4.5% implied move — a 1.07× ratio, so the options have been fairly priced. It exceeded the implied move 38% of the time.
Expected moves, gamma levels and the day's setups before the open — free.
See CAT's positioning too: CAT gamma exposure → · CAT options flow →
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The premium earnings board ranks every upcoming report by the biggest realized-vs-implied edge — where the options are mispriced vs how the stock actually moves — with the play on each.
Data via Unusual Whales · refreshes each session · educational, not financial advice · earnings are binary events with substantial risk.
