The options market is pricing a — move for COP's 2026-11-05 · after close report. Over its last 8 reports, COP has actually moved ±2.1% on average (biggest: ±6.4%). That's a 0.79× realized-vs-implied ratio, so the options look overpriced — COP has historically moved less than what's priced, which favors selling premium (iron condor / credit spreads) if you have an edge. It has exceeded the implied move in 13% of those prints, beaten EPS estimates 88% of the time (8 quarters), and the 1-day reaction has been positive 38% of the time (avg +0.2%).
Longer run: across all 19 reports on record (since 2020-02-04), the options overpriced COP's move 68% of the time — more often than the 57% market-wide average. Median actual move was 0.64× the implied (mean implied ±2.6%, mean actual ±2.5%), so on this longer sample the options screen rich. See how that compares across 2,422 prints →
This is a data-driven edge, not a prediction of direction — earnings are binary events and any single print can gap either way. Position and size accordingly.
| Report | Est EPS | Actual | Result | Implied | 1d move | 1w move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-06 | 2.96 | 3.24 | beat | ±2.8% | +1.5% | +10.7% |
| 2026-04-30 | 1.73 | 1.89 | beat | ±2.9% | -1.9% | -7.3% |
| 2026-02-05 | 1.08 | 1.02 | miss | ±2.5% | -2.4% | +3.4% |
| 2025-11-06 | 1.40 | 1.61 | beat | ±2.5% | -2.3% | +1.6% |
| 2025-08-07 | 1.36 | 1.42 | beat | ±2.6% | -0.5% | +3% |
| 2025-05-08 | 2.06 | 2.09 | beat | ±2.8% | +1.3% | +5.5% |
| 2025-02-06 | 1.90 | 1.98 | beat | ±2.5% | -0.3% | -1.8% |
| 2024-10-31 | 1.68 | 1.78 | beat | ±2.4% | +6.4% | +10.3% |
Historical implied vs actual moves & EPS beats/misses via Unusual Whales.
COP is scheduled to report on 2026-11-05, after the close. Dates can shift until the company confirms.
The expected move is the size of the post-earnings swing the options market is pricing in (from the ATM straddle). We show COP's live.
Over its last 8 reports, COP has beaten EPS estimates 88% of the time. A beat doesn't guarantee an up move — the reaction depends on guidance and how much was already priced in.
Over the last 8 reports, COP moved ±2.1% on average versus a ±2.6% implied move — a 0.79× ratio, so the options have been rich (it moves less than priced). It exceeded the implied move 13% of the time.
Expected moves, gamma levels and the day's setups before the open — free.
See COP's positioning too: COP gamma exposure → · COP options flow →
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The premium earnings board ranks every upcoming report by the biggest realized-vs-implied edge — where the options are mispriced vs how the stock actually moves — with the play on each.
Data via Unusual Whales · refreshes each session · educational, not financial advice · earnings are binary events with substantial risk.
