The options market is pricing a ±4.2% (±$4.95) move for COP's 2026-08-06 · before open report. Over its last 8 reports, COP has actually moved ±2.2% on average (biggest: ±6.4%). That's a 0.53× realized-vs-implied ratio, so the options look overpriced — COP has historically moved less than what's priced, which favors selling premium (iron condor / credit spreads) if you have an edge. It has exceeded the implied move in 25% of those prints, beaten EPS estimates 75% of the time (8 quarters), and the 1-day reaction has been negative 25% of the time (avg -0.3%).
This is a data-driven edge, not a prediction of direction — earnings are binary events and any single print can gap either way. Position and size accordingly.
| Report | Est EPS | Actual | Result | Implied | 1d move | 1w move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-30 | 1.73 | 1.89 | beat | ±2.9% | -1.9% | -7.3% |
| 2026-02-05 | 1.08 | 1.02 | miss | ±2.5% | -2.4% | +3.4% |
| 2025-11-06 | 1.40 | 1.61 | beat | ±2.5% | -2.3% | +1.6% |
| 2025-08-07 | 1.36 | 1.42 | beat | ±2.6% | -0.5% | +3% |
| 2025-05-08 | 2.06 | 2.09 | beat | ±2.8% | +1.3% | +5.5% |
| 2025-02-06 | 1.90 | 1.98 | beat | ±2.5% | -0.3% | -1.8% |
| 2024-10-31 | 1.68 | 1.78 | beat | ±2.4% | +6.4% | +10.3% |
| 2024-08-01 | 2.06 | 1.98 | miss | ±2.3% | -2.5% | -3.8% |
Historical implied vs actual moves & EPS beats/misses via Unusual Whales.
COP is scheduled to report on 2026-08-06, before the open. Dates can shift until the company confirms.
The options market is pricing an expected move of about ±4.2% (±$4.95) for COP's upcoming report — the size of the move the ATM straddle is pricing in.
Over its last 8 reports, COP has beaten EPS estimates 75% of the time. A beat doesn't guarantee an up move — the reaction depends on guidance and how much was already priced in.
Over the last 8 reports, COP moved ±2.2% on average versus a ±4.2% implied move — a 0.53× ratio, so the options have been rich (it moves less than priced). It exceeded the implied move 25% of the time.
Expected moves, gamma levels and the day's setups before the open — free.
See COP's positioning too: COP gamma exposure → · COP options flow →
The premium earnings board ranks every upcoming report by the biggest realized-vs-implied edge — where the options are mispriced vs how the stock actually moves — with the play on each.
Data via Unusual Whales · refreshes each session · educational, not financial advice · earnings are binary events with substantial risk.
