The options market is pricing a — move for COST's 2026-09-24 · after close report. Over its last 8 reports, COST has actually moved ±2.4% on average (biggest: ±6.1%). That's a 0.86× realized-vs-implied ratio, so the options look overpriced — COST has historically moved less than what's priced, which favors selling premium (iron condor / credit spreads) if you have an edge. It has exceeded the implied move in 50% of those prints, beaten EPS estimates 88% of the time (8 quarters), and the 1-day reaction has been negative 38% of the time (avg -1.2%).
This is a data-driven edge, not a prediction of direction — earnings are binary events and any single print can gap either way. Position and size accordingly.
| Report | Est EPS | Actual | Result | Implied | 1d move | 1w move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-28 | 4.92 | 4.93 | beat | ±2.5% | -3.9% | -2.3% |
| 2026-03-05 | 4.55 | 4.58 | beat | ±2.4% | +1.6% | +2.1% |
| 2025-12-11 | 4.26 | 4.34 | beat | ±2.7% | 0% | -3% |
| 2025-09-25 | 5.81 | 5.87 | beat | ±2.9% | -2.9% | -2.8% |
| 2025-05-29 | 4.25 | 4.28 | beat | ±2.6% | +3.1% | +0.2% |
| 2025-03-06 | 4.09 | 4.02 | miss | ±3.5% | -6.1% | -13.2% |
| 2024-12-12 | 3.79 | 3.82 | beat | ±2.8% | +0.1% | -3.4% |
| 2024-09-26 | 5.05 | 5.15 | beat | ±3.4% | -1.8% | -2.9% |
Historical implied vs actual moves & EPS beats/misses via Unusual Whales.
COST is scheduled to report on 2026-09-24, after the close. Dates can shift until the company confirms.
The expected move is the size of the post-earnings swing the options market is pricing in (from the ATM straddle). We show COST's live.
Over its last 8 reports, COST has beaten EPS estimates 88% of the time. A beat doesn't guarantee an up move — the reaction depends on guidance and how much was already priced in.
Over the last 8 reports, COST moved ±2.4% on average versus a ±2.8% implied move — a 0.86× ratio, so the options have been rich (it moves less than priced). It exceeded the implied move 50% of the time.
Expected moves, gamma levels and the day's setups before the open — free.
See COST's positioning too: COST gamma exposure → · COST options flow →
The premium earnings board ranks every upcoming report by the biggest realized-vs-implied edge — where the options are mispriced vs how the stock actually moves — with the play on each.
Data via Unusual Whales · refreshes each session · educational, not financial advice · earnings are binary events with substantial risk.
