The options market is pricing a ±2.1% (±$4) move for CVX's 2026-07-31 · before open report. Over its last 8 reports, CVX has actually moved ±2.4% on average (biggest: ±4.6%). That's a 1.16× realized-vs-implied ratio, so the options look underpriced — CVX has historically moved more than the market prices in, which favors buying premium (long straddle/strangle) into the print. It has exceeded the implied move in 63% of those prints, beaten EPS estimates 75% of the time (8 quarters), and the 1-day reaction has been positive 50% of the time (avg +0.2%).
This is a data-driven edge, not a prediction of direction — earnings are binary events and any single print can gap either way. Position and size accordingly.
| Report | Est EPS | Actual | Result | Implied | 1d move | 1w move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-01 | 0.92 | 1.41 | beat | ±2.4% | -1.4% | -5.6% |
| 2026-01-30 | 1.44 | 1.52 | beat | ±2% | +3.3% | +4.7% |
| 2025-10-31 | 1.66 | 1.85 | beat | ±2% | +2.7% | -0.4% |
| 2025-08-01 | 1.70 | 1.77 | beat | ±1.9% | -0.2% | +1% |
| 2025-05-02 | 2.15 | 2.18 | beat | ±2.5% | +1.6% | +0.6% |
| 2025-01-31 | 2.19 | 2.06 | miss | ±2.2% | -4.6% | -2.8% |
| 2024-11-01 | 2.47 | 2.51 | beat | ±2% | +2.9% | +5.3% |
| 2024-08-02 | 2.88 | 2.55 | miss | ±1.9% | -2.7% | -5.3% |
Historical implied vs actual moves & EPS beats/misses via Unusual Whales.
CVX is scheduled to report on 2026-07-31, before the open. Dates can shift until the company confirms.
The options market is pricing an expected move of about ±2.1% (±$4) for CVX's upcoming report — the size of the move the ATM straddle is pricing in.
Over its last 8 reports, CVX has beaten EPS estimates 75% of the time. A beat doesn't guarantee an up move — the reaction depends on guidance and how much was already priced in.
Over the last 8 reports, CVX moved ±2.4% on average versus a ±2.1% implied move — a 1.16× ratio, so the options have been cheap (it moves more than priced). It exceeded the implied move 63% of the time.
Expected moves, gamma levels and the day's setups before the open — free.
See CVX's positioning too: CVX gamma exposure → · CVX options flow →
The premium earnings board ranks every upcoming report by the biggest realized-vs-implied edge — where the options are mispriced vs how the stock actually moves — with the play on each.
Data via Unusual Whales · refreshes each session · educational, not financial advice · earnings are binary events with substantial risk.
