The options market is pricing a ±5.8% (±$19.32) move for HD's 2026-08-18 · before open report. Over its last 8 reports, HD has actually moved ±2.3% on average (biggest: ±6%). That's a 0.39× realized-vs-implied ratio, so the options look overpriced — HD has historically moved less than what's priced, which favors selling premium (iron condor / credit spreads) if you have an edge. It has exceeded the implied move in 13% of those prints, beaten EPS estimates 63% of the time (8 quarters), and the 1-day reaction has been positive 63% of the time (avg +0.3%).
This is a data-driven edge, not a prediction of direction — earnings are binary events and any single print can gap either way. Position and size accordingly.
| Report | Est EPS | Actual | Result | Implied | 1d move | 1w move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-19 | 3.40 | 3.43 | beat | ±4.2% | +0.9% | — |
| 2026-02-24 | 2.52 | 2.72 | beat | ±3.6% | +2% | -1.6% |
| 2025-11-18 | 3.81 | 3.74 | miss | ±3.5% | -6% | -6% |
| 2025-08-19 | 4.71 | 4.68 | miss | ±3.3% | +3.2% | +3.6% |
| 2025-05-20 | 3.59 | 3.56 | miss | ±3.4% | -0.6% | — |
| 2025-02-25 | 3.04 | 3.13 | beat | ±3.9% | +2.8% | +1.9% |
| 2024-11-12 | 3.64 | 3.78 | beat | ±3% | -1.3% | +0.5% |
| 2024-08-13 | 4.55 | 4.67 | beat | ±4.2% | +1.2% | +5% |
Historical implied vs actual moves & EPS beats/misses via Unusual Whales.
HD is scheduled to report on 2026-08-18, before the open. Dates can shift until the company confirms.
The options market is pricing an expected move of about ±5.8% (±$19.32) for HD's upcoming report — the size of the move the ATM straddle is pricing in.
Over its last 8 reports, HD has beaten EPS estimates 63% of the time. A beat doesn't guarantee an up move — the reaction depends on guidance and how much was already priced in.
Over the last 8 reports, HD moved ±2.3% on average versus a ±5.8% implied move — a 0.39× ratio, so the options have been rich (it moves less than priced). It exceeded the implied move 13% of the time.
Expected moves, gamma levels and the day's setups before the open — free.
See HD's positioning too: HD gamma exposure → · HD options flow →
The premium earnings board ranks every upcoming report by the biggest realized-vs-implied edge — where the options are mispriced vs how the stock actually moves — with the play on each.
Data via Unusual Whales · refreshes each session · educational, not financial advice · earnings are binary events with substantial risk.
