The options market is pricing a — move for JNJ's 2026-10-13 · after close report. Over its last 8 reports, JNJ has actually moved ±1.7% on average (biggest: ±6.2%). That's a 0.69× realized-vs-implied ratio, so the options look overpriced — JNJ has historically moved less than what's priced, which favors selling premium (iron condor / credit spreads) if you have an edge. It has exceeded the implied move in 13% of those prints, beaten EPS estimates 100% of the time (8 quarters), and the 1-day reaction has been positive 38% of the time (avg +0.4%).
This is a data-driven edge, not a prediction of direction — earnings are binary events and any single print can gap either way. Position and size accordingly.
| Report | Est EPS | Actual | Result | Implied | 1d move | 1w move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-15 | 2.84 | 2.90 | beat | ±2.8% | -2.7% | -1.3% |
| 2026-04-14 | 2.67 | 2.70 | beat | ±3% | +0.9% | -3.1% |
| 2026-01-21 | 2.43 | 2.46 | beat | ±2.8% | -0.1% | +2.9% |
| 2025-10-14 | 2.77 | 2.80 | beat | ±2.8% | 0% | +1.5% |
| 2025-07-16 | 2.66 | 2.77 | beat | ±2.2% | +6.2% | +8.2% |
| 2025-04-15 | 2.57 | 2.77 | beat | ±2.3% | -0.5% | +1.7% |
| 2025-01-22 | 2.00 | 2.04 | beat | ±2.1% | -1.9% | +1.5% |
| 2024-10-15 | 2.22 | 2.42 | beat | ±2.2% | +1.5% | +0.8% |
Historical implied vs actual moves & EPS beats/misses via Unusual Whales.
JNJ is scheduled to report on 2026-10-13, after the close. Dates can shift until the company confirms.
The expected move is the size of the post-earnings swing the options market is pricing in (from the ATM straddle). We show JNJ's live.
Over its last 8 reports, JNJ has beaten EPS estimates 100% of the time. A beat doesn't guarantee an up move — the reaction depends on guidance and how much was already priced in.
Over the last 8 reports, JNJ moved ±1.7% on average versus a ±2.5% implied move — a 0.69× ratio, so the options have been rich (it moves less than priced). It exceeded the implied move 13% of the time.
Expected moves, gamma levels and the day's setups before the open — free.
See JNJ's positioning too: JNJ gamma exposure → · JNJ options flow →
The premium earnings board ranks every upcoming report by the biggest realized-vs-implied edge — where the options are mispriced vs how the stock actually moves — with the play on each.
Data via Unusual Whales · refreshes each session · educational, not financial advice · earnings are binary events with substantial risk.
