The options market is pricing a ±17.8% (±$2.18) move for LUNR's 2026-08-13 · before open report. Over its last 8 reports, LUNR has actually moved ±11% on average (biggest: ±30%). That's a 0.62× realized-vs-implied ratio, so the options look overpriced — LUNR has historically moved less than what's priced, which favors selling premium (iron condor / credit spreads) if you have an edge. It has exceeded the implied move in 38% of those prints, beaten EPS estimates 38% of the time (8 quarters), and the 1-day reaction has been positive 63% of the time (avg +6.3%).
This is a data-driven edge, not a prediction of direction — earnings are binary events and any single print can gap either way. Position and size accordingly.
| Report | Est EPS | Actual | Result | Implied | 1d move | 1w move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-14 | -0.07 | -0.18 | miss | ±10.9% | +2.4% | -5.6% |
| 2026-03-19 | -0.04 | -0.04 | inline | ±10.6% | +4.4% | +13.5% |
| 2025-11-27 | -0.04 | -0.06 | miss | ±4.5% | +10% | — |
| 2025-08-07 | -0.06 | -0.11 | miss | ±11.9% | -4.3% | -0.1% |
| 2025-05-13 | -0.10 | -0.20 | miss | ±11.6% | +22.4% | +27.6% |
| 2025-03-24 | -0.08 | 0.04 | beat | ±14.9% | +30% | +13.8% |
| 2024-11-14 | -0.13 | 0.02 | beat | ±21.5% | -13% | +2.6% |
| 2024-08-13 | -0.14 | -0.05 | beat | ±14.3% | -1.3% | +14.2% |
Historical implied vs actual moves & EPS beats/misses via Unusual Whales.
LUNR is scheduled to report on 2026-08-13, before the open. Dates can shift until the company confirms.
The options market is pricing an expected move of about ±17.8% (±$2.18) for LUNR's upcoming report — the size of the move the ATM straddle is pricing in.
Over its last 8 reports, LUNR has beaten EPS estimates 38% of the time. A beat doesn't guarantee an up move — the reaction depends on guidance and how much was already priced in.
Over the last 8 reports, LUNR moved ±11% on average versus a ±17.8% implied move — a 0.62× ratio, so the options have been rich (it moves less than priced). It exceeded the implied move 38% of the time.
Expected moves, gamma levels and the day's setups before the open — free.
See LUNR's positioning too: LUNR gamma exposure → · LUNR options flow →
The premium earnings board ranks every upcoming report by the biggest realized-vs-implied edge — where the options are mispriced vs how the stock actually moves — with the play on each.
Data via Unusual Whales · refreshes each session · educational, not financial advice · earnings are binary events with substantial risk.
