The options market is pricing a ±2.6% (±$14.39) move for MA's 2026-07-30 · before open report. Over its last 8 reports, MA has actually moved ±2.3% on average (biggest: ±4.3%). That's a 0.91× realized-vs-implied ratio, so the options look fairly priced — MA's typical move is roughly in line with what's implied. It has exceeded the implied move in 50% of those prints, beaten EPS estimates 100% of the time (7 quarters), and the 1-day reaction has been positive 50% of the time (avg +0.5%).
This is a data-driven edge, not a prediction of direction — earnings are binary events and any single print can gap either way. Position and size accordingly.
| Report | Est EPS | Actual | Result | Implied | 1d move | 1w move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-30 | 4.77 | — | — | ±2.6% | +2.5% | — |
| 2026-04-30 | 4.40 | 4.60 | beat | ±2.8% | -4.2% | -6.3% |
| 2026-01-29 | 4.20 | 4.76 | beat | ±2.8% | +4.3% | +6.2% |
| 2025-10-30 | 4.31 | 4.38 | beat | ±2.4% | -0.2% | -0.2% |
| 2025-07-31 | 4.05 | 4.15 | beat | ±2.2% | +1.3% | +1.8% |
| 2025-05-01 | 3.57 | 3.73 | beat | ±2.5% | -0.3% | +3.3% |
| 2025-01-30 | 3.68 | 3.82 | beat | ±2.8% | +3.1% | +3.2% |
| 2024-10-31 | 3.73 | 3.89 | beat | ±2.5% | -2.7% | +1.4% |
Historical implied vs actual moves & EPS beats/misses via Unusual Whales.
MA is scheduled to report on 2026-07-30, before the open. Dates can shift until the company confirms.
The options market is pricing an expected move of about ±2.6% (±$14.39) for MA's upcoming report — the size of the move the ATM straddle is pricing in.
Over its last 7 reports, MA has beaten EPS estimates 100% of the time. A beat doesn't guarantee an up move — the reaction depends on guidance and how much was already priced in.
Over the last 8 reports, MA moved ±2.3% on average versus a ±2.6% implied move — a 0.91× ratio, so the options have been fairly priced. It exceeded the implied move 50% of the time.
Expected moves, gamma levels and the day's setups before the open — free.
See MA's positioning too: MA gamma exposure → · MA options flow →
The premium earnings board ranks every upcoming report by the biggest realized-vs-implied edge — where the options are mispriced vs how the stock actually moves — with the play on each.
Data via Unusual Whales · refreshes each session · educational, not financial advice · earnings are binary events with substantial risk.
