The options market is pricing a ±10.6% (±$1.25) move for MARA's 2026-08-06 · after close report. Over its last 8 reports, MARA has actually moved ±6.2% on average (biggest: ±14%). That's a 0.58× realized-vs-implied ratio, so the options look overpriced — MARA has historically moved less than what's priced, which favors selling premium (iron condor / credit spreads) if you have an edge. It has exceeded the implied move in 25% of those prints, beaten EPS estimates 13% of the time (8 quarters), and the 1-day reaction has been positive 50% of the time (avg +0%).
This is a data-driven edge, not a prediction of direction — earnings are binary events and any single print can gap either way. Position and size accordingly.
| Report | Est EPS | Actual | Result | Implied | 1d move | 1w move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-11 | -0.25 | -0.61 | miss | ±9.3% | -5% | -9% |
| 2026-02-26 | -0.23 | -0.46 | miss | ±7.1% | +5.8% | +3.8% |
| 2025-11-04 | -0.26 | -0.32 | miss | ±6.7% | +3.1% | -12% |
| 2025-07-29 | -0.49 | -0.81 | miss | ±7.1% | -0.4% | -6% |
| 2025-05-08 | -0.34 | -0.40 | miss | ±5.4% | +10.3% | +9.7% |
| 2025-02-26 | -0.32 | 1.24 | beat | ±9.5% | +5.5% | +21.4% |
| 2024-11-12 | -0.38 | -0.38 | inline | ±12.8% | -14% | -21.3% |
| 2024-08-01 | -0.23 | -0.24 | miss | ±6.1% | -5.2% | -4.1% |
Historical implied vs actual moves & EPS beats/misses via Unusual Whales.
MARA is scheduled to report on 2026-08-06, after the close. Dates can shift until the company confirms.
The options market is pricing an expected move of about ±10.6% (±$1.25) for MARA's upcoming report — the size of the move the ATM straddle is pricing in.
Over its last 8 reports, MARA has beaten EPS estimates 13% of the time. A beat doesn't guarantee an up move — the reaction depends on guidance and how much was already priced in.
Over the last 8 reports, MARA moved ±6.2% on average versus a ±10.6% implied move — a 0.58× ratio, so the options have been rich (it moves less than priced). It exceeded the implied move 25% of the time.
Expected moves, gamma levels and the day's setups before the open — free.
See MARA's positioning too: MARA gamma exposure → · MARA options flow →
The premium earnings board ranks every upcoming report by the biggest realized-vs-implied edge — where the options are mispriced vs how the stock actually moves — with the play on each.
Data via Unusual Whales · refreshes each session · educational, not financial advice · earnings are binary events with substantial risk.
