The options market is pricing a ±3.5% (±$9.45) move for MCD's 2026-08-04 · before open report. Over its last 8 reports, MCD has actually moved ±2.1% on average (biggest: ±4.8%). That's a 0.61× realized-vs-implied ratio, so the options look overpriced — MCD has historically moved less than what's priced, which favors selling premium (iron condor / credit spreads) if you have an edge. It has exceeded the implied move in 25% of those prints, beaten EPS estimates 63% of the time (8 quarters), and the 1-day reaction has been positive 50% of the time (avg +1.3%).
This is a data-driven edge, not a prediction of direction — earnings are binary events and any single print can gap either way. Position and size accordingly.
| Report | Est EPS | Actual | Result | Implied | 1d move | 1w move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-07 | 2.74 | 2.83 | beat | ±2.9% | -0.1% | -3% |
| 2026-02-11 | 3.05 | 3.12 | beat | ±2.6% | -0.8% | +0.5% |
| 2025-11-05 | 3.35 | 3.22 | miss | ±2.8% | +2.2% | +2.5% |
| 2025-08-06 | 3.15 | 3.19 | beat | ±2.8% | +3% | +1% |
| 2025-05-01 | 2.64 | 2.67 | beat | ±2.8% | -1.9% | -0.5% |
| 2025-02-10 | 2.84 | 2.83 | miss | ±3.1% | +4.8% | +4.8% |
| 2024-10-29 | 3.18 | 3.23 | beat | ±3% | -0.6% | -1.3% |
| 2024-07-29 | 3.08 | 2.97 | miss | ±4% | +3.7% | +9.8% |
Historical implied vs actual moves & EPS beats/misses via Unusual Whales.
MCD is scheduled to report on 2026-08-04, before the open. Dates can shift until the company confirms.
The options market is pricing an expected move of about ±3.5% (±$9.45) for MCD's upcoming report — the size of the move the ATM straddle is pricing in.
Over its last 8 reports, MCD has beaten EPS estimates 63% of the time. A beat doesn't guarantee an up move — the reaction depends on guidance and how much was already priced in.
Over the last 8 reports, MCD moved ±2.1% on average versus a ±3.5% implied move — a 0.61× ratio, so the options have been rich (it moves less than priced). It exceeded the implied move 25% of the time.
Expected moves, gamma levels and the day's setups before the open — free.
See MCD's positioning too: MCD gamma exposure → · MCD options flow →
The premium earnings board ranks every upcoming report by the biggest realized-vs-implied edge — where the options are mispriced vs how the stock actually moves — with the play on each.
Data via Unusual Whales · refreshes each session · educational, not financial advice · earnings are binary events with substantial risk.
