The options market is pricing a ±4.4% (±$5.68) move for MRK's 2026-08-04 · before open report. Over its last 8 reports, MRK has actually moved ±3.6% on average (biggest: ±9.8%). That's a 0.81× realized-vs-implied ratio, so the options look overpriced — MRK has historically moved less than what's priced, which favors selling premium (iron condor / credit spreads) if you have an edge. It has exceeded the implied move in 25% of those prints, beaten EPS estimates 100% of the time (8 quarters), and the 1-day reaction has been negative 25% of the time (avg -2.7%).
This is a data-driven edge, not a prediction of direction — earnings are binary events and any single print can gap either way. Position and size accordingly.
| Report | Est EPS | Actual | Result | Implied | 1d move | 1w move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-30 | -1.51 | -1.28 | beat | ±3.9% | -1.6% | +2.4% |
| 2026-02-03 | 2.03 | 2.04 | beat | ±4.3% | +2.2% | +3.8% |
| 2025-10-30 | 2.36 | 2.58 | beat | ±3.7% | -0.3% | -2.5% |
| 2025-07-29 | 2.01 | 2.13 | beat | ±4.3% | -1.7% | -5% |
| 2025-04-24 | 2.15 | 2.22 | beat | ±4.7% | +1.4% | +8.2% |
| 2025-02-04 | 1.69 | 1.72 | beat | ±4.3% | -9.1% | -13.4% |
| 2024-10-31 | 1.50 | 1.57 | beat | ±4.2% | -2.4% | -3.9% |
| 2024-07-30 | 2.16 | 2.28 | beat | ±3.5% | -9.8% | -12.1% |
Historical implied vs actual moves & EPS beats/misses via Unusual Whales.
MRK is scheduled to report on 2026-08-04, before the open. Dates can shift until the company confirms.
The options market is pricing an expected move of about ±4.4% (±$5.68) for MRK's upcoming report — the size of the move the ATM straddle is pricing in.
Over its last 8 reports, MRK has beaten EPS estimates 100% of the time. A beat doesn't guarantee an up move — the reaction depends on guidance and how much was already priced in.
Over the last 8 reports, MRK moved ±3.6% on average versus a ±4.4% implied move — a 0.81× ratio, so the options have been rich (it moves less than priced). It exceeded the implied move 25% of the time.
Expected moves, gamma levels and the day's setups before the open — free.
See MRK's positioning too: MRK gamma exposure → · MRK options flow →
The premium earnings board ranks every upcoming report by the biggest realized-vs-implied edge — where the options are mispriced vs how the stock actually moves — with the play on each.
Data via Unusual Whales · refreshes each session · educational, not financial advice · earnings are binary events with substantial risk.
