The options market is pricing a ±6.7% (±$3.88) move for MRNA's 2026-07-31 · before open report. Over its last 8 reports, MRNA has actually moved ±6.1% on average (biggest: ±21%). That's a 0.91× realized-vs-implied ratio, so the options look fairly priced — MRNA's typical move is roughly in line with what's implied. It has exceeded the implied move in 13% of those prints, beaten EPS estimates 100% of the time (8 quarters), and the 1-day reaction has been negative 38% of the time (avg -3.2%).
This is a data-driven edge, not a prediction of direction — earnings are binary events and any single print can gap either way. Position and size accordingly.
| Report | Est EPS | Actual | Result | Implied | 1d move | 1w move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-01 | -3.02 | -1.18 | beat | ±6.9% | -1.2% | +5.7% |
| 2026-02-13 | -2.60 | -2.11 | beat | ±7.6% | +5.3% | +23.9% |
| 2025-11-06 | -2.15 | -0.51 | beat | ±7.4% | +3.3% | +13.4% |
| 2025-08-01 | -2.99 | -2.13 | beat | ±8.7% | -6.6% | -10% |
| 2025-05-01 | -2.92 | -2.52 | beat | ±9.2% | -5.3% | -15.7% |
| 2025-02-14 | -2.69 | -2.50 | beat | ±8.6% | +3.4% | +5.7% |
| 2024-11-07 | -1.91 | 0.03 | beat | ±11.4% | -3% | -18.7% |
| 2024-08-01 | -3.47 | -3.33 | beat | ±7% | -21% | -31.6% |
Historical implied vs actual moves & EPS beats/misses via Unusual Whales.
MRNA is scheduled to report on 2026-07-31, before the open. Dates can shift until the company confirms.
The options market is pricing an expected move of about ±6.7% (±$3.88) for MRNA's upcoming report — the size of the move the ATM straddle is pricing in.
Over its last 8 reports, MRNA has beaten EPS estimates 100% of the time. A beat doesn't guarantee an up move — the reaction depends on guidance and how much was already priced in.
Over the last 8 reports, MRNA moved ±6.1% on average versus a ±6.7% implied move — a 0.91× ratio, so the options have been fairly priced. It exceeded the implied move 13% of the time.
Expected moves, gamma levels and the day's setups before the open — free.
See MRNA's positioning too: MRNA gamma exposure → · MRNA options flow →
The premium earnings board ranks every upcoming report by the biggest realized-vs-implied edge — where the options are mispriced vs how the stock actually moves — with the play on each.
Data via Unusual Whales · refreshes each session · educational, not financial advice · earnings are binary events with substantial risk.
