The options market is pricing a — move for MS's 2026-10-21 · after close report. Over its last 8 reports, MS has actually moved ±2.8% on average (biggest: ±5.8%). That's a 0.85× realized-vs-implied ratio, so the options look overpriced — MS has historically moved less than what's priced, which favors selling premium (iron condor / credit spreads) if you have an edge. It has exceeded the implied move in 50% of those prints, beaten EPS estimates 100% of the time (8 quarters), and the 1-day reaction has been positive 75% of the time (avg +2.4%).
This is a data-driven edge, not a prediction of direction — earnings are binary events and any single print can gap either way. Position and size accordingly.
| Report | Est EPS | Actual | Result | Implied | 1d move | 1w move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-15 | 2.89 | 3.46 | beat | ±3.7% | +0.4% | -5% |
| 2026-04-15 | 3.06 | 3.43 | beat | ±2.9% | +4.5% | +3.3% |
| 2026-01-15 | 2.41 | 2.68 | beat | ±3% | +5.8% | +1.4% |
| 2025-10-15 | 2.08 | 2.80 | beat | ±3.6% | +4.7% | +2.5% |
| 2025-07-16 | 1.93 | 2.13 | beat | ±3.1% | -1.3% | -1.1% |
| 2025-04-11 | 2.23 | 2.60 | beat | ±5% | +1.4% | +2.4% |
| 2025-01-16 | 1.65 | 2.22 | beat | ±3.2% | +4% | +4.2% |
| 2024-10-17 | 1.57 | 1.88 | beat | ±1.5% | -0.1% | -1% |
Historical implied vs actual moves & EPS beats/misses via Unusual Whales.
MS is scheduled to report on 2026-10-21, after the close. Dates can shift until the company confirms.
The expected move is the size of the post-earnings swing the options market is pricing in (from the ATM straddle). We show MS's live.
Over its last 8 reports, MS has beaten EPS estimates 100% of the time. A beat doesn't guarantee an up move — the reaction depends on guidance and how much was already priced in.
Over the last 8 reports, MS moved ±2.8% on average versus a ±3.3% implied move — a 0.85× ratio, so the options have been rich (it moves less than priced). It exceeded the implied move 50% of the time.
Expected moves, gamma levels and the day's setups before the open — free.
See MS's positioning too: MS gamma exposure → · MS options flow →
The premium earnings board ranks every upcoming report by the biggest realized-vs-implied edge — where the options are mispriced vs how the stock actually moves — with the play on each.
Data via Unusual Whales · refreshes each session · educational, not financial advice · earnings are binary events with substantial risk.
