The options market is pricing a ±4.3% (±$4.18) move for MSTR's 2026-07-30 · after close report. Over its last 8 reports, MSTR has actually moved ±6.6% on average (biggest: ±26.1%). That's a 1.54× realized-vs-implied ratio, so the options look underpriced — MSTR has historically moved more than the market prices in, which favors buying premium (long straddle/strangle) into the print. It has exceeded the implied move in 50% of those prints, beaten EPS estimates 50% of the time (4 quarters), and the 1-day reaction has been positive 38% of the time (avg +2.2%).
This is a data-driven edge, not a prediction of direction — earnings are binary events and any single print can gap either way. Position and size accordingly.
| Report | Est EPS | Actual | Result | Implied | 1d move | 1w move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-05 | -3.41 | -38.25 | miss | ±6% | 0% | -1.3% |
| 2026-02-05 | 46.02 | -42.93 | miss | ±10.2% | +26.1% | +15% |
| 2025-10-30 | -0.11 | 8.42 | beat | ±4.3% | +5.9% | -6.8% |
| 2025-07-31 | -0.12 | 32.60 | beat | ±3.5% | -8.8% | +0% |
| 2025-05-01 | — | -16.49 | — | ±3.1% | +3.3% | +8.6% |
| 2025-02-05 | — | — | — | ±5.9% | -3.3% | -2.9% |
| 2024-10-30 | — | — | — | ±6.5% | -1.1% | +4.2% |
| 2024-08-01 | — | — | — | ±4.5% | -4.2% | -10% |
Historical implied vs actual moves & EPS beats/misses via Unusual Whales.
MSTR is scheduled to report on 2026-07-30, after the close. Dates can shift until the company confirms.
The options market is pricing an expected move of about ±4.3% (±$4.18) for MSTR's upcoming report — the size of the move the ATM straddle is pricing in.
Over its last 4 reports, MSTR has beaten EPS estimates 50% of the time. A beat doesn't guarantee an up move — the reaction depends on guidance and how much was already priced in.
Over the last 8 reports, MSTR moved ±6.6% on average versus a ±4.3% implied move — a 1.54× ratio, so the options have been cheap (it moves more than priced). It exceeded the implied move 50% of the time.
Expected moves, gamma levels and the day's setups before the open — free.
See MSTR's positioning too: MSTR gamma exposure → · MSTR options flow →
The premium earnings board ranks every upcoming report by the biggest realized-vs-implied edge — where the options are mispriced vs how the stock actually moves — with the play on each.
Data via Unusual Whales · refreshes each session · educational, not financial advice · earnings are binary events with substantial risk.
