The options market is pricing a ±9% (±$88.13) move for MU's 2026-09-30 · after close report. Over its last 8 reports, MU has actually moved ±9.1% on average (biggest: ±16.2%). That's a 1.01× realized-vs-implied ratio, so the options look fairly priced — MU's typical move is roughly in line with what's implied. It has exceeded the implied move in 50% of those prints, beaten EPS estimates 50% of the time (8 quarters), and the 1-day reaction has been positive 38% of the time (avg +1.1%).
Longer run: across all 19 reports on record (since 2019-12-18), the options overpriced MU's move 63% of the time — more often than the 57% market-wide average. Median actual move was 0.76× the implied (mean implied ±7.1%, mean actual ±6.9%), so on this longer sample the options screen rich. See how that compares across 2,422 prints →
This is a data-driven edge, not a prediction of direction — earnings are binary events and any single print can gap either way. Position and size accordingly.
| Report | Est EPS | Actual | Result | Implied | 1d move | 1w move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-24 | 20.98 | 24.89 | beat | ±9.4% | +15.7% | -1.5% |
| 2026-03-18 | 8.80 | 12.08 | beat | ±6.6% | -3.8% | -17.2% |
| 2025-12-17 | 3.91 | 4.61 | beat | ±7.6% | +10.2% | +27.1% |
| 2025-09-23 | 2.86 | 2.86 | inline | ±8.6% | -2.8% | +0.5% |
| 2025-06-25 | 1.59 | 1.73 | beat | ±6.8% | -1% | -4.3% |
| 2025-03-20 | 1.43 | 1.41 | miss | ±8.9% | -8% | -11.5% |
| 2024-12-18 | 1.75 | 1.62 | miss | ±10.9% | -16.2% | — |
| 2024-09-25 | 1.10 | 0.99 | miss | ±8.5% | +14.7% | +4.3% |
Historical implied vs actual moves & EPS beats/misses via Unusual Whales.
MU is scheduled to report on 2026-09-30, after the close. Dates can shift until the company confirms.
The options market is pricing an expected move of about ±9% (±$88.13) for MU's upcoming report — the size of the move the ATM straddle is pricing in.
Over its last 8 reports, MU has beaten EPS estimates 50% of the time. A beat doesn't guarantee an up move — the reaction depends on guidance and how much was already priced in.
Over the last 8 reports, MU moved ±9.1% on average versus a ±9% implied move — a 1.01× ratio, so the options have been fairly priced. It exceeded the implied move 50% of the time.
Expected moves, gamma levels and the day's setups before the open — free.
See MU's positioning too: MU gamma exposure → · MU options flow →
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The premium earnings board ranks every upcoming report by the biggest realized-vs-implied edge — where the options are mispriced vs how the stock actually moves — with the play on each.
Data via Unusual Whales · refreshes each session · educational, not financial advice · earnings are binary events with substantial risk.
