The options market is pricing a — move for NIO's 2026-09-01 · after close report. Over its last 8 reports, NIO has actually moved ±5.4% on average (biggest: ±15.4%). That's a 0.63× realized-vs-implied ratio, so the options look overpriced — NIO has historically moved less than what's priced, which favors selling premium (iron condor / credit spreads) if you have an edge. It has exceeded the implied move in 25% of those prints, beaten EPS estimates 50% of the time (8 quarters), and the 1-day reaction has been positive 75% of the time (avg +3.2%).
This is a data-driven edge, not a prediction of direction — earnings are binary events and any single print can gap either way. Position and size accordingly.
| Report | Est EPS | Actual | Result | Implied | 1d move | 1w move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-21 | -0.24 | -0.03 | beat | ±6.7% | +0.2% | +2.9% |
| 2026-03-10 | -0.05 | 0.01 | beat | ±7.8% | +15.4% | +22.1% |
| 2025-11-25 | -0.24 | -0.21 | beat | ±8.4% | -4.3% | -9.9% |
| 2025-09-02 | -0.30 | -0.32 | miss | ±10.5% | +3.4% | -6.7% |
| 2025-06-03 | -0.22 | -0.45 | miss | ±7.6% | +0.3% | +2.3% |
| 2025-03-21 | -0.33 | -0.47 | miss | ±7.8% | -4.5% | -15.5% |
| 2024-11-20 | -0.32 | -0.36 | miss | ±10.5% | +0.4% | -6.9% |
| 2024-09-05 | -0.46 | -0.34 | beat | ±9.2% | +14.4% | +32.1% |
Historical implied vs actual moves & EPS beats/misses via Unusual Whales.
NIO is scheduled to report on 2026-09-01, after the close. Dates can shift until the company confirms.
The expected move is the size of the post-earnings swing the options market is pricing in (from the ATM straddle). We show NIO's live.
Over its last 8 reports, NIO has beaten EPS estimates 50% of the time. A beat doesn't guarantee an up move — the reaction depends on guidance and how much was already priced in.
Over the last 8 reports, NIO moved ±5.4% on average versus a ±8.6% implied move — a 0.63× ratio, so the options have been rich (it moves less than priced). It exceeded the implied move 25% of the time.
Expected moves, gamma levels and the day's setups before the open — free.
See NIO's positioning too: NIO gamma exposure → · NIO options flow →
The premium earnings board ranks every upcoming report by the biggest realized-vs-implied edge — where the options are mispriced vs how the stock actually moves — with the play on each.
Data via Unusual Whales · refreshes each session · educational, not financial advice · earnings are binary events with substantial risk.
