The options market is pricing a ±11.8% (±$4.85) move for OKLO's 2026-08-07 · before open report. Over its last 8 reports, OKLO has actually moved ±9.6% on average (biggest: ±24.6%). That's a 0.81× realized-vs-implied ratio, so the options look overpriced — OKLO has historically moved less than what's priced, which favors selling premium (iron condor / credit spreads) if you have an edge. It has exceeded the implied move in 25% of those prints, beaten EPS estimates 29% of the time (7 quarters), and the 1-day reaction has been negative 50% of the time (avg -1.1%).
This is a data-driven edge, not a prediction of direction — earnings are binary events and any single print can gap either way. Position and size accordingly.
| Report | Est EPS | Actual | Result | Implied | 1d move | 1w move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-12 | -0.20 | -0.19 | beat | ±9.4% | -5.4% | -24.1% |
| 2026-03-17 | -0.18 | -0.27 | miss | ±8.9% | -6.3% | -9.2% |
| 2025-11-11 | -0.13 | -0.20 | miss | ±10.2% | +6.7% | -7.3% |
| 2025-08-11 | -0.12 | -0.18 | miss | ±11.2% | +9.2% | -4% |
| 2025-05-13 | -0.11 | -0.07 | beat | ±10.9% | +15.5% | +17.3% |
| 2025-03-24 | -0.08 | -0.09 | miss | ±13.2% | -6.4% | -30% |
| 2024-11-14 | -0.08 | -0.08 | inline | ±13.5% | -24.6% | +5.7% |
| 2024-08-13 | — | -5.17 | — | ±14% | +2.6% | -6.9% |
Historical implied vs actual moves & EPS beats/misses via Unusual Whales.
OKLO is scheduled to report on 2026-08-07, before the open. Dates can shift until the company confirms.
The options market is pricing an expected move of about ±11.8% (±$4.85) for OKLO's upcoming report — the size of the move the ATM straddle is pricing in.
Over its last 7 reports, OKLO has beaten EPS estimates 29% of the time. A beat doesn't guarantee an up move — the reaction depends on guidance and how much was already priced in.
Over the last 8 reports, OKLO moved ±9.6% on average versus a ±11.8% implied move — a 0.81× ratio, so the options have been rich (it moves less than priced). It exceeded the implied move 25% of the time.
Expected moves, gamma levels and the day's setups before the open — free.
See OKLO's positioning too: OKLO gamma exposure → · OKLO options flow →
The premium earnings board ranks every upcoming report by the biggest realized-vs-implied edge — where the options are mispriced vs how the stock actually moves — with the play on each.
Data via Unusual Whales · refreshes each session · educational, not financial advice · earnings are binary events with substantial risk.
