The options market is pricing a ±11.2% (±$9.4) move for ON's 2026-08-03 · after close report. Over its last 8 reports, ON has actually moved ±6.2% on average (biggest: ±15.6%). That's a 0.56× realized-vs-implied ratio, so the options look overpriced — ON has historically moved less than what's priced, which favors selling premium (iron condor / credit spreads) if you have an edge. It has exceeded the implied move in 25% of those prints, beaten EPS estimates 75% of the time (8 quarters), and the 1-day reaction has been negative 63% of the time (avg -1.8%).
This is a data-driven edge, not a prediction of direction — earnings are binary events and any single print can gap either way. Position and size accordingly.
| Report | Est EPS | Actual | Result | Implied | 1d move | 1w move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-04 | 0.61 | 0.64 | beat | ±10.2% | +0.6% | +5.1% |
| 2026-02-09 | 0.62 | 0.64 | beat | ±7.9% | +3.5% | — |
| 2025-11-03 | 0.60 | 0.63 | beat | ±11.5% | +0.8% | -4.5% |
| 2025-08-04 | 0.54 | 0.53 | miss | ±8.9% | -15.6% | -16.1% |
| 2025-05-05 | 0.51 | 0.55 | beat | ±9% | -8.4% | -2.2% |
| 2025-02-10 | 0.98 | 0.95 | miss | ±8.5% | -8.2% | +1.1% |
| 2024-10-28 | 0.97 | 0.99 | beat | ±7.9% | +1.4% | -0.4% |
| 2024-07-29 | 0.92 | 0.96 | beat | ±8.3% | +11.5% | -3.2% |
Historical implied vs actual moves & EPS beats/misses via Unusual Whales.
ON is scheduled to report on 2026-08-03, after the close. Dates can shift until the company confirms.
The options market is pricing an expected move of about ±11.2% (±$9.4) for ON's upcoming report — the size of the move the ATM straddle is pricing in.
Over its last 8 reports, ON has beaten EPS estimates 75% of the time. A beat doesn't guarantee an up move — the reaction depends on guidance and how much was already priced in.
Over the last 8 reports, ON moved ±6.2% on average versus a ±11.2% implied move — a 0.56× ratio, so the options have been rich (it moves less than priced). It exceeded the implied move 25% of the time.
Expected moves, gamma levels and the day's setups before the open — free.
See ON's positioning too: ON gamma exposure → · ON options flow →
The premium earnings board ranks every upcoming report by the biggest realized-vs-implied edge — where the options are mispriced vs how the stock actually moves — with the play on each.
Data via Unusual Whales · refreshes each session · educational, not financial advice · earnings are binary events with substantial risk.
