The options market is pricing a ±10.7% (±$34.83) move for PANW's 2026-08-17 · after close report. Over its last 8 reports, PANW has actually moved ±4.9% on average (biggest: ±7.4%). That's a 0.46× realized-vs-implied ratio, so the options look overpriced — PANW has historically moved less than what's priced, which favors selling premium (iron condor / credit spreads) if you have an edge. It has exceeded the implied move in 38% of those prints, beaten EPS estimates 0% of the time (8 quarters), and the 1-day reaction has been negative 38% of the time (avg -2%).
This is a data-driven edge, not a prediction of direction — earnings are binary events and any single print can gap either way. Position and size accordingly.
| Report | Est EPS | Actual | Result | Implied | 1d move | 1w move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-02 | 0.81 | 0.32 | miss | ±11.2% | -5.6% | -12.3% |
| 2026-02-17 | 0.93 | 0.68 | miss | ±6.7% | -6.8% | -13.4% |
| 2025-11-19 | 0.89 | 0.53 | miss | ±5.8% | -7.4% | -7.3% |
| 2025-08-18 | 0.89 | 0.42 | miss | ±6.9% | +3.1% | +4.8% |
| 2025-05-20 | 0.77 | 0.43 | miss | ±6.3% | -6.8% | -3.6% |
| 2025-02-13 | 0.78 | 0.43 | miss | ±7% | -0.9% | -1.5% |
| 2024-11-20 | 0.74 | 0.21 | miss | ±6.9% | +1.2% | -2.2% |
| 2024-08-19 | 0.70 | 0.43 | miss | ±8.4% | +7.2% | +1.1% |
Historical implied vs actual moves & EPS beats/misses via Unusual Whales.
PANW is scheduled to report on 2026-08-17, after the close. Dates can shift until the company confirms.
The options market is pricing an expected move of about ±10.7% (±$34.83) for PANW's upcoming report — the size of the move the ATM straddle is pricing in.
Over its last 8 reports, PANW has beaten EPS estimates 0% of the time. A beat doesn't guarantee an up move — the reaction depends on guidance and how much was already priced in.
Over the last 8 reports, PANW moved ±4.9% on average versus a ±10.7% implied move — a 0.46× ratio, so the options have been rich (it moves less than priced). It exceeded the implied move 38% of the time.
Expected moves, gamma levels and the day's setups before the open — free.
See PANW's positioning too: PANW gamma exposure → · PANW options flow →
The premium earnings board ranks every upcoming report by the biggest realized-vs-implied edge — where the options are mispriced vs how the stock actually moves — with the play on each.
Data via Unusual Whales · refreshes each session · educational, not financial advice · earnings are binary events with substantial risk.
