The options market is pricing a ±3.1% (±$0.77) move for PFE's 2026-08-04 · before open report. Over its last 8 reports, PFE has actually moved ±2.3% on average (biggest: ±5.2%). That's a 0.75× realized-vs-implied ratio, so the options look overpriced — PFE has historically moved less than what's priced, which favors selling premium (iron condor / credit spreads) if you have an edge. It has exceeded the implied move in 25% of those prints, beaten EPS estimates 100% of the time (8 quarters), and the 1-day reaction has been positive 50% of the time (avg +0.5%).
This is a data-driven edge, not a prediction of direction — earnings are binary events and any single print can gap either way. Position and size accordingly.
| Report | Est EPS | Actual | Result | Implied | 1d move | 1w move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-05 | 0.71 | 0.75 | beat | ±3.7% | +0.6% | -1.9% |
| 2026-02-03 | 0.57 | 0.66 | beat | ±3.2% | -3.3% | +1.5% |
| 2025-11-04 | 0.66 | 0.87 | beat | ±4.2% | -1.5% | -1.1% |
| 2025-08-05 | 0.58 | 0.78 | beat | ±4% | +5.2% | +4.5% |
| 2025-04-29 | 0.64 | 0.92 | beat | ±3.4% | +3.2% | +3.6% |
| 2025-02-04 | 0.48 | 0.63 | beat | ±3.6% | -1.3% | -1.3% |
| 2024-10-29 | 0.64 | 1.06 | beat | ±3.4% | -1.4% | -3.8% |
| 2024-07-30 | 0.45 | 0.60 | beat | ±4.2% | +2.2% | -3.2% |
Historical implied vs actual moves & EPS beats/misses via Unusual Whales.
PFE is scheduled to report on 2026-08-04, before the open. Dates can shift until the company confirms.
The options market is pricing an expected move of about ±3.1% (±$0.77) for PFE's upcoming report — the size of the move the ATM straddle is pricing in.
Over its last 8 reports, PFE has beaten EPS estimates 100% of the time. A beat doesn't guarantee an up move — the reaction depends on guidance and how much was already priced in.
Over the last 8 reports, PFE moved ±2.3% on average versus a ±3.1% implied move — a 0.75× ratio, so the options have been rich (it moves less than priced). It exceeded the implied move 25% of the time.
Expected moves, gamma levels and the day's setups before the open — free.
See PFE's positioning too: PFE gamma exposure → · PFE options flow →
The premium earnings board ranks every upcoming report by the biggest realized-vs-implied edge — where the options are mispriced vs how the stock actually moves — with the play on each.
Data via Unusual Whales · refreshes each session · educational, not financial advice · earnings are binary events with substantial risk.
