The options market is pricing a ±11.7% (±$1.74) move for RGTI's 2026-08-06 · after close report. Over its last 8 reports, RGTI has actually moved ±6% on average (biggest: ±14.6%). That's a 0.51× realized-vs-implied ratio, so the options look overpriced — RGTI has historically moved less than what's priced, which favors selling premium (iron condor / credit spreads) if you have an edge. It has exceeded the implied move in 13% of those prints, beaten EPS estimates 63% of the time (8 quarters), and the 1-day reaction has been negative 25% of the time (avg -3.5%).
This is a data-driven edge, not a prediction of direction — earnings are binary events and any single print can gap either way. Position and size accordingly.
| Report | Est EPS | Actual | Result | Implied | 1d move | 1w move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-11 | -0.05 | -0.04 | beat | ±12.2% | -7% | -19% |
| 2026-03-04 | -0.05 | -0.03 | beat | ±9.8% | -4.4% | -4.6% |
| 2025-11-10 | -0.05 | -0.03 | beat | ±11% | -5.1% | -25.4% |
| 2025-08-12 | -0.06 | -0.05 | beat | ±11.5% | +6.4% | -6.4% |
| 2025-05-12 | -0.05 | -0.08 | miss | ±13.9% | -14.6% | +4.3% |
| 2025-03-05 | -0.08 | -0.08 | inline | ±15.1% | +3.9% | +9.4% |
| 2024-11-12 | -0.08 | -0.08 | inline | ±19.6% | -2% | -14.5% |
| 2024-08-08 | -0.10 | -0.07 | beat | ±36.6% | -4.9% | +6.6% |
Historical implied vs actual moves & EPS beats/misses via Unusual Whales.
RGTI is scheduled to report on 2026-08-06, after the close. Dates can shift until the company confirms.
The options market is pricing an expected move of about ±11.7% (±$1.74) for RGTI's upcoming report — the size of the move the ATM straddle is pricing in.
Over its last 8 reports, RGTI has beaten EPS estimates 63% of the time. A beat doesn't guarantee an up move — the reaction depends on guidance and how much was already priced in.
Over the last 8 reports, RGTI moved ±6% on average versus a ±11.7% implied move — a 0.51× ratio, so the options have been rich (it moves less than priced). It exceeded the implied move 13% of the time.
Expected moves, gamma levels and the day's setups before the open — free.
See RGTI's positioning too: RGTI gamma exposure → · RGTI options flow →
The premium earnings board ranks every upcoming report by the biggest realized-vs-implied edge — where the options are mispriced vs how the stock actually moves — with the play on each.
Data via Unusual Whales · refreshes each session · educational, not financial advice · earnings are binary events with substantial risk.
