The options market is pricing a ±11.4% (±$2.51) move for RIOT's 2026-08-05 · before open report. Over its last 8 reports, RIOT has actually moved ±9.2% on average (biggest: ±17.7%). That's a 0.81× realized-vs-implied ratio, so the options look overpriced — RIOT has historically moved less than what's priced, which favors selling premium (iron condor / credit spreads) if you have an edge. It has exceeded the implied move in 63% of those prints, beaten EPS estimates 38% of the time (8 quarters), and the 1-day reaction has been negative 25% of the time (avg -5.3%).
This is a data-driven edge, not a prediction of direction — earnings are binary events and any single print can gap either way. Position and size accordingly.
| Report | Est EPS | Actual | Result | Implied | 1d move | 1w move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-30 | -0.33 | -1.44 | miss | ±6.4% | +7.3% | +39.8% |
| 2026-03-02 | -0.22 | -2.03 | miss | ±8.6% | -6.9% | -10.5% |
| 2025-10-30 | -0.19 | 0.26 | beat | ±7.7% | -6.2% | -17.8% |
| 2025-07-31 | -0.19 | 0.57 | beat | ±7.5% | -17.7% | -13.6% |
| 2025-05-01 | -0.25 | -0.90 | miss | ±7.3% | +8% | +8.6% |
| 2025-02-24 | -0.27 | 0.44 | beat | ±14.8% | -6.7% | -11.3% |
| 2024-10-30 | -0.17 | -0.54 | miss | ±10.2% | -11.8% | +16.9% |
| 2024-07-31 | -0.16 | -0.32 | miss | ±6.8% | -8.5% | -25% |
Historical implied vs actual moves & EPS beats/misses via Unusual Whales.
RIOT is scheduled to report on 2026-08-05, before the open. Dates can shift until the company confirms.
The options market is pricing an expected move of about ±11.4% (±$2.51) for RIOT's upcoming report — the size of the move the ATM straddle is pricing in.
Over its last 8 reports, RIOT has beaten EPS estimates 38% of the time. A beat doesn't guarantee an up move — the reaction depends on guidance and how much was already priced in.
Over the last 8 reports, RIOT moved ±9.2% on average versus a ±11.4% implied move — a 0.81× ratio, so the options have been rich (it moves less than priced). It exceeded the implied move 63% of the time.
Expected moves, gamma levels and the day's setups before the open — free.
See RIOT's positioning too: RIOT gamma exposure → · RIOT options flow →
The premium earnings board ranks every upcoming report by the biggest realized-vs-implied edge — where the options are mispriced vs how the stock actually moves — with the play on each.
Data via Unusual Whales · refreshes each session · educational, not financial advice · earnings are binary events with substantial risk.
