The options market is pricing a ±7.4% (±$1.25) move for RIVN's 2026-07-30 · after close report. Over its last 8 reports, RIVN has actually moved ±10.7% on average (biggest: ±26.6%). That's a 1.44× realized-vs-implied ratio, so the options look underpriced — RIVN has historically moved more than the market prices in, which favors buying premium (long straddle/strangle) into the print. It has exceeded the implied move in 38% of those prints, beaten EPS estimates 38% of the time (8 quarters), and the 1-day reaction has been positive 38% of the time (avg +3.2%).
This is a data-driven edge, not a prediction of direction — earnings are binary events and any single print can gap either way. Position and size accordingly.
| Report | Est EPS | Actual | Result | Implied | 1d move | 1w move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-30 | -0.60 | -0.71 | miss | ±8.1% | -8.4% | -13.5% |
| 2026-02-12 | -0.69 | -0.66 | beat | ±9.5% | +26.6% | +11.4% |
| 2025-11-04 | -0.72 | -0.82 | miss | ±8.6% | +23.4% | +44.2% |
| 2025-08-05 | -0.65 | -0.97 | miss | ±9.2% | -4.2% | -1.5% |
| 2025-05-06 | -0.80 | -0.57 | beat | ±9% | -5.8% | +10.1% |
| 2025-02-20 | -0.66 | -0.63 | beat | ±11.4% | -4.7% | -14.8% |
| 2024-11-07 | -0.89 | -1.14 | miss | ±11.5% | +5.4% | +2.6% |
| 2024-08-06 | -1.09 | -1.39 | miss | ±11.7% | -6.9% | -8.5% |
Historical implied vs actual moves & EPS beats/misses via Unusual Whales.
RIVN is scheduled to report on 2026-07-30, after the close. Dates can shift until the company confirms.
The options market is pricing an expected move of about ±7.4% (±$1.25) for RIVN's upcoming report — the size of the move the ATM straddle is pricing in.
Over its last 8 reports, RIVN has beaten EPS estimates 38% of the time. A beat doesn't guarantee an up move — the reaction depends on guidance and how much was already priced in.
Over the last 8 reports, RIVN moved ±10.7% on average versus a ±7.4% implied move — a 1.44× ratio, so the options have been cheap (it moves more than priced). It exceeded the implied move 38% of the time.
Expected moves, gamma levels and the day's setups before the open — free.
See RIVN's positioning too: RIVN gamma exposure → · RIVN options flow →
The premium earnings board ranks every upcoming report by the biggest realized-vs-implied edge — where the options are mispriced vs how the stock actually moves — with the play on each.
Data via Unusual Whales · refreshes each session · educational, not financial advice · earnings are binary events with substantial risk.
