The options market is pricing a ±12.2% (±$6.39) move for RKLB's 2026-11-09 · after close report. Over its last 8 reports, RKLB has actually moved ±10.6% on average (biggest: ±34.2%). That's a 0.87× realized-vs-implied ratio, so the options look overpriced — RKLB has historically moved less than what's priced, which favors selling premium (iron condor / credit spreads) if you have an edge. It has exceeded the implied move in 38% of those prints, beaten EPS estimates 25% of the time (8 quarters), and the 1-day reaction has been positive 50% of the time (avg +6.2%).
Longer run: across all 19 reports on record (since 2022-02-28), the options overpriced RKLB's move 68% of the time — more often than the 57% market-wide average. Median actual move was 0.34× the implied (mean implied ±11%, mean actual ±8.2%), so on this longer sample the options screen rich. See how that compares across 2,422 prints →
This is a data-driven edge, not a prediction of direction — earnings are binary events and any single print can gap either way. Position and size accordingly.
| Report | Est EPS | Actual | Result | Implied | 1d move | 1w move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-10 | -0.03 | -0.06 | miss | ±11.4% | 0% | +2.5% |
| 2026-05-07 | -0.04 | -0.06 | miss | ±7.4% | +34.2% | +68.7% |
| 2026-02-26 | -0.05 | -0.10 | miss | ±7.9% | -4.9% | -3.6% |
| 2025-11-10 | -0.05 | -0.01 | beat | ±10.6% | -1.3% | -16.6% |
| 2025-08-07 | -0.07 | -0.13 | miss | ±10.5% | +1.1% | -3.2% |
| 2025-05-08 | -0.11 | -0.12 | miss | ±10% | -11.2% | +9.2% |
| 2025-02-27 | -0.09 | -0.10 | miss | ±12.3% | +3.3% | -5.8% |
| 2024-11-12 | -0.11 | -0.10 | beat | ±14.5% | +28.4% | +39.8% |
Historical implied vs actual moves & EPS beats/misses via Unusual Whales.
RKLB is scheduled to report on 2026-11-09, after the close. Dates can shift until the company confirms.
The options market is pricing an expected move of about ±12.2% (±$6.39) for RKLB's upcoming report — the size of the move the ATM straddle is pricing in.
Over its last 8 reports, RKLB has beaten EPS estimates 25% of the time. A beat doesn't guarantee an up move — the reaction depends on guidance and how much was already priced in.
Over the last 8 reports, RKLB moved ±10.6% on average versus a ±12.2% implied move — a 0.87× ratio, so the options have been rich (it moves less than priced). It exceeded the implied move 38% of the time.
Expected moves, gamma levels and the day's setups before the open — free.
See RKLB's positioning too: RKLB gamma exposure → · RKLB options flow →
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The premium earnings board ranks every upcoming report by the biggest realized-vs-implied edge — where the options are mispriced vs how the stock actually moves — with the play on each.
Data via Unusual Whales · refreshes each session · educational, not financial advice · earnings are binary events with substantial risk.
