The options market is pricing a — move for SBUX's 2026-11-04 · after close report. Over its last 8 reports, SBUX has actually moved ±3.3% on average (biggest: ±8.4%). That's a 0.58× realized-vs-implied ratio, so the options look overpriced — SBUX has historically moved less than what's priced, which favors selling premium (iron condor / credit spreads) if you have an edge. It has exceeded the implied move in 25% of those prints, beaten EPS estimates 38% of the time (8 quarters), and the 1-day reaction has been positive 50% of the time (avg +1.4%).
This is a data-driven edge, not a prediction of direction — earnings are binary events and any single print can gap either way. Position and size accordingly.
| Report | Est EPS | Actual | Result | Implied | 1d move | 1w move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-29 | 0.66 | 0.85 | beat | ±4.6% | +1.6% | — |
| 2026-04-28 | 0.44 | 0.50 | beat | ±5.6% | +8.4% | +7.9% |
| 2026-01-28 | 0.58 | 0.56 | miss | ±6.1% | -0.6% | -2.8% |
| 2025-10-29 | 0.55 | 0.52 | miss | ±6.4% | -1.2% | -1.5% |
| 2025-07-29 | 0.65 | 0.50 | miss | ±5.9% | -0.2% | -3% |
| 2025-04-29 | 0.49 | 0.41 | miss | ±6.2% | -5.7% | -2.4% |
| 2025-01-28 | 0.66 | 0.69 | beat | ±5.8% | +8.1% | +10.1% |
| 2024-10-30 | 0.80 | 0.80 | inline | ±4.6% | +0.4% | -1.3% |
Historical implied vs actual moves & EPS beats/misses via Unusual Whales.
SBUX is scheduled to report on 2026-11-04, after the close. Dates can shift until the company confirms.
The expected move is the size of the post-earnings swing the options market is pricing in (from the ATM straddle). We show SBUX's live.
Over its last 8 reports, SBUX has beaten EPS estimates 38% of the time. A beat doesn't guarantee an up move — the reaction depends on guidance and how much was already priced in.
Over the last 8 reports, SBUX moved ±3.3% on average versus a ±5.7% implied move — a 0.58× ratio, so the options have been rich (it moves less than priced). It exceeded the implied move 25% of the time.
Expected moves, gamma levels and the day's setups before the open — free.
See SBUX's positioning too: SBUX gamma exposure → · SBUX options flow →
The premium earnings board ranks every upcoming report by the biggest realized-vs-implied edge — where the options are mispriced vs how the stock actually moves — with the play on each.
Data via Unusual Whales · refreshes each session · educational, not financial advice · earnings are binary events with substantial risk.
