The options market is pricing a ±10.9% (±$13.3) move for SHOP's 2026-08-05 · before open report. Over its last 8 reports, SHOP has actually moved ±11.7% on average (biggest: ±22%). That's a 1.08× realized-vs-implied ratio, so the options look fairly priced — SHOP's typical move is roughly in line with what's implied. It has exceeded the implied move in 50% of those prints, beaten EPS estimates 0% of the time (8 quarters), and the 1-day reaction has been positive 50% of the time (avg +4.3%).
This is a data-driven edge, not a prediction of direction — earnings are binary events and any single print can gap either way. Position and size accordingly.
| Report | Est EPS | Actual | Result | Implied | 1d move | 1w move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-05 | 0.32 | 0.27 | miss | ±10.6% | -15.6% | -19.6% |
| 2026-02-11 | 0.50 | 0.38 | miss | ±10.1% | -6.7% | -10.8% |
| 2025-11-04 | 0.34 | 0.27 | miss | ±10% | -6.9% | -8.1% |
| 2025-08-06 | 0.28 | 0.25 | miss | ±9.2% | +22% | +17.6% |
| 2025-05-08 | 0.26 | 0.18 | miss | ±9.5% | -0.5% | +17.9% |
| 2025-02-11 | 0.44 | 0.34 | miss | ±11.2% | +3.1% | — |
| 2024-11-12 | 0.27 | 0.27 | inline | ±12.3% | +21% | +17.7% |
| 2024-08-07 | 0.20 | 0.18 | miss | ±9.8% | +17.8% | +28.9% |
Historical implied vs actual moves & EPS beats/misses via Unusual Whales.
SHOP is scheduled to report on 2026-08-05, before the open. Dates can shift until the company confirms.
The options market is pricing an expected move of about ±10.9% (±$13.3) for SHOP's upcoming report — the size of the move the ATM straddle is pricing in.
Over its last 8 reports, SHOP has beaten EPS estimates 0% of the time. A beat doesn't guarantee an up move — the reaction depends on guidance and how much was already priced in.
Over the last 8 reports, SHOP moved ±11.7% on average versus a ±10.9% implied move — a 1.08× ratio, so the options have been fairly priced. It exceeded the implied move 50% of the time.
Expected moves, gamma levels and the day's setups before the open — free.
See SHOP's positioning too: SHOP gamma exposure → · SHOP options flow →
The premium earnings board ranks every upcoming report by the biggest realized-vs-implied edge — where the options are mispriced vs how the stock actually moves — with the play on each.
Data via Unusual Whales · refreshes each session · educational, not financial advice · earnings are binary events with substantial risk.
