The options market is pricing a ±11.9% (±$1.02) move for SMR's 2026-08-05 · after close report. Over its last 8 reports, SMR has actually moved ±9.5% on average (biggest: ±21.6%). That's a 0.81× realized-vs-implied ratio, so the options look overpriced — SMR has historically moved less than what's priced, which favors selling premium (iron condor / credit spreads) if you have an edge. It has exceeded the implied move in 38% of those prints, beaten EPS estimates 17% of the time (6 quarters), and the 1-day reaction has been positive 50% of the time (avg +4%).
This is a data-driven edge, not a prediction of direction — earnings are binary events and any single print can gap either way. Position and size accordingly.
| Report | Est EPS | Actual | Result | Implied | 1d move | 1w move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-07 | -0.11 | -0.14 | miss | ±7.2% | -0.2% | -4.1% |
| 2026-02-26 | -0.10 | -0.80 | miss | ±9.3% | -3.6% | -8.6% |
| 2025-11-06 | -0.11 | -1.85 | miss | ±11.2% | -6.5% | -28.7% |
| 2025-08-07 | -0.12 | -0.13 | miss | ±9.3% | -11.9% | -19.6% |
| 2025-05-12 | — | -0.11 | — | ±11.4% | +21.6% | +37.8% |
| 2025-03-03 | -0.11 | 0.60 | beat | ±14.9% | +11.5% | -5% |
| 2024-11-07 | — | -0.18 | — | ±10.5% | +13% | +13.8% |
| 2024-08-08 | -0.13 | -0.31 | miss | ±9.2% | +7.9% | +9.2% |
Historical implied vs actual moves & EPS beats/misses via Unusual Whales.
SMR is scheduled to report on 2026-08-05, after the close. Dates can shift until the company confirms.
The options market is pricing an expected move of about ±11.9% (±$1.02) for SMR's upcoming report — the size of the move the ATM straddle is pricing in.
Over its last 6 reports, SMR has beaten EPS estimates 17% of the time. A beat doesn't guarantee an up move — the reaction depends on guidance and how much was already priced in.
Over the last 8 reports, SMR moved ±9.5% on average versus a ±11.9% implied move — a 0.81× ratio, so the options have been rich (it moves less than priced). It exceeded the implied move 38% of the time.
Expected moves, gamma levels and the day's setups before the open — free.
See SMR's positioning too: SMR gamma exposure → · SMR options flow →
The premium earnings board ranks every upcoming report by the biggest realized-vs-implied edge — where the options are mispriced vs how the stock actually moves — with the play on each.
Data via Unusual Whales · refreshes each session · educational, not financial advice · earnings are binary events with substantial risk.
