The options market is pricing a ±8.1% (±$42.37) move for SPOT's 2026-08-04 · before open report. Over its last 8 reports, SPOT has actually moved ±10.1% on average (biggest: ±14.7%). That's a 1.25× realized-vs-implied ratio, so the options look underpriced — SPOT has historically moved more than the market prices in, which favors buying premium (long straddle/strangle) into the print. It has exceeded the implied move in 75% of those prints, beaten EPS estimates 50% of the time (8 quarters), and the 1-day reaction has been positive 50% of the time (avg +2.7%).
This is a data-driven edge, not a prediction of direction — earnings are binary events and any single print can gap either way. Position and size accordingly.
| Report | Est EPS | Actual | Result | Implied | 1d move | 1w move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-28 | 3.72 | 4.04 | beat | ±8.5% | -12.4% | -11.6% |
| 2026-02-10 | 3.02 | 5.16 | beat | ±8% | +14.7% | — |
| 2025-11-04 | 1.87 | 3.83 | beat | ±8.2% | -2.2% | -3.3% |
| 2025-07-29 | 2.13 | -0.48 | miss | ±7.5% | -11.6% | -6% |
| 2025-04-29 | 2.29 | 1.13 | miss | ±9% | -3.5% | +6.7% |
| 2025-02-04 | 1.92 | 1.88 | miss | ±8.9% | +13.2% | +16.1% |
| 2024-11-12 | 1.75 | 1.59 | miss | ±8.5% | +11.4% | +10.6% |
| 2024-07-23 | 1.08 | 1.43 | beat | ±8.7% | +12% | +9.6% |
Historical implied vs actual moves & EPS beats/misses via Unusual Whales.
SPOT is scheduled to report on 2026-08-04, before the open. Dates can shift until the company confirms.
The options market is pricing an expected move of about ±8.1% (±$42.37) for SPOT's upcoming report — the size of the move the ATM straddle is pricing in.
Over its last 8 reports, SPOT has beaten EPS estimates 50% of the time. A beat doesn't guarantee an up move — the reaction depends on guidance and how much was already priced in.
Over the last 8 reports, SPOT moved ±10.1% on average versus a ±8.1% implied move — a 1.25× ratio, so the options have been cheap (it moves more than priced). It exceeded the implied move 75% of the time.
Expected moves, gamma levels and the day's setups before the open — free.
See SPOT's positioning too: SPOT gamma exposure → · SPOT options flow →
The premium earnings board ranks every upcoming report by the biggest realized-vs-implied edge — where the options are mispriced vs how the stock actually moves — with the play on each.
Data via Unusual Whales · refreshes each session · educational, not financial advice · earnings are binary events with substantial risk.
